DENBroncos
5-8
3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
24°F
8 mph
23
KCChiefs
9-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
24°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
3
0
0
3
Chiefs
6
9
8
0
23
Spread
-9.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
251
421
Total Plays
57
64
Yards / Play
4.4
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.15
Passing Yards
199
329
Comp/Att
18/40(45%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.28
Rushing Yards
52
92
Rush Attempts
15
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
27
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
36%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.19
-3.68
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-9
-13
Sack EPA
-2.92
-3.51
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
72
45
Penalty EPA
-6.03
-5.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+209
Home nfelo
1,636
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+51.1
Base HFA
+47.5
Divisional Adj
-21.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.6
Time Adj
+8.5
Net QB Adjustment
+12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+11.2
Away QB Adjustment
-1.4
Market Regression
-35.9
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
P. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Value
Ptile
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
10
Yards / Game
28
17
Passing Yards / Game
31
15
Rushing Yards / Game
20
25
EPA
EPA / Play
24
16
EPA / Pass
25
9
EPA / Rush
18
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
12
4
Fumbles / Game
4
24
Turnover EPA / Game
26
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
10
4th Down Efficiency
1
17
RZ Efficiency
27
10
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
4
12
Passing Yards / Game
5
6
Rushing Yards / Game
22
16
EPA
EPA / Play
2
15
EPA / Pass
2
14
EPA / Rush
7
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
17
Interceptions / Game
3
25
Fumbles / Game
14
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
11
4th Down Efficiency
3
15
RZ Efficiency
11
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U