DENBroncos
0-2
20
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
86°F
5 mph
70
MIADolphins
2-0
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
86°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
6
0
7
20
Dolphins
14
21
14
21
70
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
363
726
Total Plays
59
71
Yards / Play
6.2
10.2
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.62
Passing Yards
294
--
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
25/28(89%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+1.11
Rushing Yards
69
350
Rush Attempts
20
43
Yards / Rush
3.5
8.1
EPA / Rush
-0.30
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
30
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
25%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
6
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-14.47
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-2.00
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
46
55
Penalty EPA
-6.10
-5.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+149
Home nfelo
1,574
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+58.4
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.4
Net QB Adjustment
+3.9
Home QB Adjustment
+17.1
Away QB Adjustment
+13.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
22
Yards / Game
26
11
Passing Yards / Game
13
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
7
EPA
EPA / Play
20
22
EPA / Pass
20
13
EPA / Rush
19
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
29
Interceptions / Game
4
16
Fumbles / Game
27
5
Turnover EPA / Game
15
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
20
4th Down Efficiency
4
13
RZ Efficiency
19
26
Dolphins Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
27
Yards / Game
3
29
Passing Yards / Game
16
14
Rushing Yards / Game
7
30
EPA
EPA / Play
4
24
EPA / Pass
4
26
EPA / Rush
9
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
6
Interceptions / Game
24
19
Fumbles / Game
20
1
Turnover EPA / Game
9
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
2
4th Down Efficiency
24
10
RZ Efficiency
3
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U