DENBroncos
3-8
9
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
11 mph
35
MIADolphins
4-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
3
0
0
3
Dolphins
0
8
10
9
27
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
270
367
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
4.0
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.59
-0.25
Passing Yards
167
222
Comp/Att
19/42(45%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.65
-0.43
Rushing Yards
103
145
Rush Attempts
23
30
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
15
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
8%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-18.10
-16.70
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-33
-13
Sack EPA
-5.42
-3.75
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
57
85
Penalty EPA
-3.96
-13.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model51.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+17
Home nfelo
1,374
Away nfelo
1,433
Home Field
+75.6
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+19.9
Net QB Adjustment
-0.2
Home QB Adjustment
+3.3
Away QB Adjustment
+3.5
Market Regression
+0.2
Final Difference
-9.2
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
29
Yards / Game
18
16
Passing Yards / Game
19
19
Rushing Yards / Game
12
14
EPA
EPA / Play
29
20
EPA / Pass
31
28
EPA / Rush
16
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
31
28
Fumbles / Game
23
23
Turnover EPA / Game
2
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
9
4th Down Efficiency
26
2
RZ Efficiency
32
29
Dolphins Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
22
Yards / Game
25
1
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
29
5
EPA
EPA / Play
28
9
EPA / Pass
26
16
EPA / Rush
30
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
3
Interceptions / Game
30
25
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
3
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
2
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
19
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
3-7
SU
2-6-2
ATS
6-4
O/U