DENBroncos
2-2
+3.5
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
70°F
0-3.5
PHIEagles
4-0
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
70°F
0Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+126
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+52.5
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+13.8
Net QB Adjustment
-5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+9.9
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
15
Yards / Game
9
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
12
Rushing Yards / Game
5
21
EPA
EPA / Play
13
10
EPA / Pass
12
10
EPA / Rush
13
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
13
Interceptions / Game
24
8
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
11
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
14
4th Down Efficiency
25
5
RZ Efficiency
8
3
Eagles Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
30
10
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
16
11
EPA
EPA / Play
14
7
EPA / Pass
24
7
EPA / Rush
6
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
31
Interceptions / Game
1
24
Fumbles / Game
7
3
Turnover EPA / Game
31
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
4
4th Down Efficiency
9
1
RZ Efficiency
1
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Eagles
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U