DENBroncos
2-2
21
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
80°F
6 mph
17
PHIEagles
4-0
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
80°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
0
0
18
21
Eagles
3
7
7
0
17
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
360
302
Total Plays
71
55
Yards / Play
5.1
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.01
Passing Yards
230
257
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.01
Rushing Yards
130
45
Rush Attempts
29
11
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
31%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-14
-23
Sack EPA
-2.83
-6.87
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
121
55
Penalty EPA
-11.03
-9.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+53.4
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.1
Net QB Adjustment
-5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+9.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
8
Yards / Game
13
18
Passing Yards / Game
27
22
Rushing Yards / Game
11
19
EPA
EPA / Play
20
9
EPA / Pass
13
6
EPA / Rush
14
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
11
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
2
19
Turnover EPA / Game
24
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
20
4th Down Efficiency
20
3
RZ Efficiency
15
3
Eagles Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
3
Yards / Game
25
3
Passing Yards / Game
23
16
Rushing Yards / Game
17
4
EPA
EPA / Play
18
4
EPA / Pass
12
2
EPA / Rush
22
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
31
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
6
16
Turnover EPA / Game
31
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
1
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
1
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Eagles
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U