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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ eagles week 5, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
2-2
21
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
80°F
6 mph
17
PHIEagles
4-0
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
80°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
0
0
18
21
Eagles
3
7
7
0
17

Spread

DEN logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
360
302
Total Plays
71
55
Yards / Play
5.1
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.01
Passing Yards
230
257
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.01
Rushing Yards
130
45
Rush Attempts
29
11
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
31%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-14
-23
Sack EPA
-2.83
-6.87
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
121
55
Penalty EPA
-11.03
-9.18

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+128
Home nfelo
1,629
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+53.4
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.1
Net QB Adjustment
-5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+9.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
Value
Ptile
12/02
-1.7
36
12/15
-4.6
19
12/19
5.5
82
12/28
3.4
72
01/05
15.5
100
01/12
-0.2
48
09/07
-4.7
19
09/14
4.4
79
09/21
-1.9
37
09/29
7.0
92
J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Value
Ptile
12/15
8.5
94
12/22
-4.4
21
01/12
-0.4
46
01/19
-2.4
32
01/26
7.5
92
02/09
6.3
85
09/04
6.5
90
09/14
-3.1
28
09/21
4.9
84
09/28
0.5
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Eagles Defense
Broncos logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
14
3
Yards / Game
9
13
Passing Yards / Game
23
16
Rushing Yards / Game
19
21

EPA

EPA / Play
15
7
EPA / Pass
9
2
EPA / Rush
13
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
21
Interceptions / Game
16
15
Fumbles / Game
3
12
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
17
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
10
8
Eagles Offense vs Broncos Defense
Eagles logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
19
4
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
21
22
Rushing Yards / Game
17
2

EPA

EPA / Play
19
11
EPA / Pass
13
10
EPA / Rush
19
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
32
Interceptions / Game
1
19
Fumbles / Game
15
24
Turnover EPA / Game
24
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
10
10
RZ Efficiency
1
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
9
W
W
O
12/15
18
W
W
P
12/19
-7
L
L
O
12/28
-6
L
L
O
01/05
38
W
W
U
01/12
-24
L
L
U
09/07
8
W
L
U
09/14
-1
L
L
O
09/21
-3
L
L
U
09/29
25
W
W
U
PHI logo

Eagles

10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
34
W
W
O
01/05
7
W
W
U
01/12
12
W
W
U
01/19
6
W
L
O
01/26
32
W
W
O
02/09
18
W
W
O
09/04
4
W
L
U
09/14
3
W
W
U
09/21
7
W
W
O
09/28
6
W
W
O