DENBroncos
2-2
16
TBD
MetLife Stadium
77°F
7 mph
34
NYJJets
1-3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
77°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
3
0
6
16
Jets
0
21
3
10
34
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
436
512
Total Plays
73
61
Yards / Play
6.0
8.4
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.14
Passing Yards
344
189
Comp/Att
35/52(67%)
10/22(45%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.18
Rushing Yards
92
323
Rush Attempts
17
38
Yards / Rush
5.4
8.5
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
18
Passing 1st downs
19
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
29%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.25
-9.03
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-33
-9
Sack EPA
-6.93
-2.19
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
45
33
Penalty EPA
-5.09
-2.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model47.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,417
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+96.8
Base HFA
+56.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
+20.3
Net QB Adjustment
-22.5
Home QB Adjustment
-16.0
Away QB Adjustment
+6.5
Market Regression
-25.2
Final Difference
17.4
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.5
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-16.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
29
Yards / Game
19
25
Passing Yards / Game
14
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
26
EPA
EPA / Play
22
18
EPA / Pass
26
20
EPA / Rush
8
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
19
Interceptions / Game
23
16
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
21
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
2
4th Down Efficiency
10
25
RZ Efficiency
18
9
Jets Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
12
Yards / Game
29
22
Passing Yards / Game
23
28
Rushing Yards / Game
26
22
EPA
EPA / Play
29
10
EPA / Pass
27
17
EPA / Rush
31
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
23
Interceptions / Game
29
3
Fumbles / Game
22
15
Turnover EPA / Game
4
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
17
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
30
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jets
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U