DENBroncos
0-2
16
TBD
Lambeau Field
69°F
7 mph
27
GBPackers
2-0
TBD
Lambeau Field
69°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
10
6
0
16
Packers
7
10
7
3
27
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
310
312
Total Plays
73
52
Yards / Play
4.2
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.08
Passing Yards
161
--
Comp/Att
20/29(69%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.22
Rushing Yards
149
77
Rush Attempts
38
23
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
53%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-14.93
--
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-52
--
Sack EPA
-14.34
--
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
27
--
Penalty EPA
-3.73
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+182
Home nfelo
1,542
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
+67.2
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-8.1
Home QB Adjustment
-1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
-26.4
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
12
Yards / Game
28
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
8
Rushing Yards / Game
20
26
EPA
EPA / Play
24
18
EPA / Pass
25
8
EPA / Rush
18
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
20
Interceptions / Game
12
5
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
26
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
13
4th Down Efficiency
1
15
RZ Efficiency
27
11
Packers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
8
Yards / Game
17
12
Passing Yards / Game
13
6
Rushing Yards / Game
15
16
EPA
EPA / Play
7
15
EPA / Pass
10
14
EPA / Rush
9
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
17
Interceptions / Game
1
25
Fumbles / Game
10
28
Turnover EPA / Game
31
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
11
4th Down Efficiency
8
15
RZ Efficiency
2
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
0-10
O/U
Packers
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U