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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ panthers week 14, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
4-8
32
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
7 mph
27
CARPanthers
4-8
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
12
7
26
Panthers
0
7
3
17
27

Spread

DEN logo
+4

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
365
370
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
6.2
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.03
Passing Yards
269
245
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
30/40(75%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.05
Rushing Yards
96
125
Rush Attempts
30
21
Yards / Rush
3.2
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
38%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.28
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-11
-38
Sack EPA
-9.28
-5.29
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
18
48
Penalty EPA
-1.26
-7.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+134
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,371
Home Field
+10.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+18.4
Home QB Adjustment
+22.5
Away QB Adjustment
+4.1
Market Regression
+13.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

P. Lock headshot

P. Lock

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
Value
Ptile
12/29
-3.0
31
09/14
1.3
52
09/20
-6.6
9
10/18
-9.6
4
10/25
-3.9
20
11/01
0.1
47
11/08
2.7
65
11/15
-11.9
2
11/22
-0.8
39
12/06
-4.0
20
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+22.5
Value
Ptile
09/20
-2.1
29
09/27
2.0
58
10/04
6.4
86
10/11
4.7
77
10/18
-5.9
12
10/25
5.4
80
10/29
-5.7
12
11/08
9.8
96
11/15
0.0
46
11/29
-0.6
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Panthers Defense
Broncos logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
18
Yards / Game
24
16
Passing Yards / Game
29
14
Rushing Yards / Game
13
18

EPA

EPA / Play
31
25
EPA / Pass
30
21
EPA / Rush
26
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
16
Interceptions / Game
32
30
Fumbles / Game
23
1
Turnover EPA / Game
1
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
31
4th Down Efficiency
32
21
RZ Efficiency
27
21
Panthers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Panthers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
24
25
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
20
27
Rushing Yards / Game
20
25

EPA

EPA / Play
16
20
EPA / Pass
21
14
EPA / Rush
13
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
27
23
Fumbles / Game
12
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
12
4th Down Efficiency
20
12
RZ Efficiency
28
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
-18
L
L
U
10/01
9
W
W
O
10/18
6
W
W
U
10/25
-27
L
L
O
11/01
1
W
W
O
11/08
-7
L
L
O
11/15
-25
L
L
U
11/22
7
W
W
U
11/29
-28
L
L
U
12/06
-6
L
W
U
CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
5
W
W
U
10/04
10
W
W
U
10/11
7
W
W
U
10/18
-7
L
L
U
10/25
-3
L
W
O
10/29
-8
L
L
U
11/08
-2
L
W
O
11/15
-23
L
L
O
11/22
20
W
W
U
11/29
-1
L
W
O