DENBroncos
4-8
32
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
7 mph
27
CARPanthers
4-8
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
12
7
26
Panthers
0
7
3
17
27
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
370
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
6.2
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.03
Passing Yards
269
245
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
30/40(75%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.05
Rushing Yards
96
125
Rush Attempts
30
21
Yards / Rush
3.2
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
38%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.28
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-11
-38
Sack EPA
-9.28
-5.29
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
18
48
Penalty EPA
-1.26
-7.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+135
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,373
Home Field
+10.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+18.4
Home QB Adjustment
+22.5
Away QB Adjustment
+4.1
Market Regression
+13.3
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+22.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
18
Yards / Game
24
16
Passing Yards / Game
29
14
Rushing Yards / Game
13
18
EPA
EPA / Play
31
25
EPA / Pass
30
21
EPA / Rush
26
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
16
Interceptions / Game
32
30
Fumbles / Game
23
1
Turnover EPA / Game
1
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
31
4th Down Efficiency
32
21
RZ Efficiency
27
21
Panthers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
25
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
20
27
Rushing Yards / Game
20
25
EPA
EPA / Play
16
20
EPA / Pass
21
14
EPA / Rush
13
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
27
23
Fumbles / Game
12
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
12
4th Down Efficiency
20
12
RZ Efficiency
28
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Panthers
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U