DENBroncos
2-2
21
TBD
Gillette Stadium
54°F
4 mph
31
NEPatriots
2-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
54°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
7
7
21
Patriots
7
10
14
0
31
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
394
444
Total Plays
66
89
Yards / Play
6.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.15
Passing Yards
324
193
Comp/Att
31/44(70%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.24
Rushing Yards
70
251
Rush Attempts
20
54
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.30
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
35
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
18
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
54%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
7
11
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-10.95
-4.47
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-13
-30
Sack EPA
-7.29
-7.25
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
--
59
Penalty EPA
--
-6.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+187
Home nfelo
1,678
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-13.1
Home QB Adjustment
+15.9
Away QB Adjustment
+29.0
Market Regression
-43.9
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+29.0
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
10
Yards / Game
4
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
15
8
EPA
EPA / Play
4
17
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
26
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
30
Interceptions / Game
8
6
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
12
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
20
4th Down Efficiency
3
13
RZ Efficiency
4
23
Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
1
2
Passing Yards / Game
9
19
Rushing Yards / Game
7
4
EPA
EPA / Play
1
3
EPA / Pass
1
6
EPA / Rush
3
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
31
Interceptions / Game
5
14
Fumbles / Game
8
21
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
1
4th Down Efficiency
5
5
RZ Efficiency
1
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U