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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ patriots week 5, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
2-2
21
TBD
Gillette Stadium
54°F
4 mph
31
NEPatriots
2-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
54°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
7
7
21
Patriots
7
10
14
0
31

Spread

NE logo
-6

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
394
444
Total Plays
66
89
Yards / Play
6.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.15
Passing Yards
324
193
Comp/Att
31/44(70%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.24
Rushing Yards
70
251
Rush Attempts
20
54
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.30
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
22
35
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
18
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
54%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
7
11
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-10.95
-4.47
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-13
-30
Sack EPA
-7.29
-7.25
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
--
59
Penalty EPA
--
-6.91

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model70.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+192
Home nfelo
1,678
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-13.1
Home QB Adjustment
+15.9
Away QB Adjustment
+29.0
Market Regression
-33.5
Final Difference
151.8
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+29.0
Value
Ptile
12/05
2.4
65
12/09
7.3
91
12/19
4.9
81
12/26
1.0
55
01/02
4.2
77
01/08
3.6
73
09/09
4.2
76
09/17
-5.7
14
09/23
2.2
63
09/30
10.2
96
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
Value
Ptile
12/18
6.6
89
12/24
4.5
79
01/01
2.9
72
01/14
14.3
99
01/22
-0.3
50
02/05
1.9
65
09/09
4.6
80
09/16
-1.1
41
09/23
5.8
85
09/30
9.4
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Broncos logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
2
10
Yards / Game
4
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
15
8

EPA

EPA / Play
4
17
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
26
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
30
Interceptions / Game
8
6
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
12
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
20
4th Down Efficiency
3
13
RZ Efficiency
4
23
Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Patriots logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
1
2
Passing Yards / Game
9
19
Rushing Yards / Game
7
4

EPA

EPA / Play
1
3
EPA / Pass
1
6
EPA / Rush
3
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
31
Interceptions / Game
5
14
Fumbles / Game
8
21
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
1
4th Down Efficiency
5
5
RZ Efficiency
1
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
3
W
L
U
12/18
-18
L
L
O
12/24
-26
L
L
O
01/01
-4
L
L
U
01/08
6
W
W
O
01/14
-35
L
L
O
09/09
12
W
W
O
09/17
-6
L
L
U
09/23
-6
L
L
O
09/30
31
W
W
U
NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
18
W
W
O
12/24
3
W
L
O
01/01
28
W
W
O
01/14
35
W
W
O
01/22
3
W
L
U
02/05
-4
L
L
U
09/09
21
W
W
U
09/16
-2
L
L
U
09/23
-1
L
W
O
09/30
24
W
W
O