DENBroncos
1-3
18
TBD
Gillette Stadium
58°F
7 mph
12
NEPatriots
2-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
58°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
6
6
6
0
18
Patriots
0
3
0
9
12
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
299
288
Total Plays
63
57
Yards / Play
4.7
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.24
Passing Yards
164
171
Comp/Att
10/24(42%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.58
Rushing Yards
135
117
Rush Attempts
37
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
14
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
29%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.41
-14.74
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-25
-24
Sack EPA
-3.42
-6.19
Penalties
2
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model71.7%
Spread Pick
Broncos+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+125
Home nfelo
1,572
Away nfelo
1,463
Home Field
+5.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+11.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.0
Market Regression
-31.5
Final Difference
161.6
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
P. Lock
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
8
Yards / Game
24
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
7
Rushing Yards / Game
13
26
EPA
EPA / Play
31
18
EPA / Pass
30
16
EPA / Rush
26
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
14
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
23
31
Turnover EPA / Game
1
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
15
4th Down Efficiency
32
17
RZ Efficiency
27
29
Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
25
Yards / Game
26
20
Passing Yards / Game
28
27
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25
EPA
EPA / Play
18
20
EPA / Pass
28
14
EPA / Rush
4
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
20
Interceptions / Game
23
23
Fumbles / Game
5
28
Turnover EPA / Game
13
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
23
12
RZ Efficiency
24
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U