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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ patriots week 6, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
1-3
18
TBD
Gillette Stadium
58°F
7 mph
12
NEPatriots
2-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
58°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
6
6
6
0
18
Patriots
0
3
0
9
12

Spread

DEN logo
+7

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
299
288
Total Plays
63
57
Yards / Play
4.7
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.24
Passing Yards
164
171
Comp/Att
10/24(42%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.58
Rushing Yards
135
117
Rush Attempts
37
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
15
14
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
29%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.41
-14.74
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-25
-24
Sack EPA
-3.42
-6.19
Penalties
2
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model71.7%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+125
Home nfelo
1,572
Away nfelo
1,463
Home Field
+5.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+11.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.0
Market Regression
-31.5
Final Difference
161.6
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

P. Lock headshot

P. Lock

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Value
Ptile
12/01
-0.4
49
12/08
5.3
84
12/15
-7.4
10
12/22
0.9
59
12/29
-3.0
31
09/14
1.3
52
09/20
-6.6
9
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
Value
Ptile
11/18
3.1
70
11/25
9.1
94
12/02
-4.7
19
12/09
-1.1
39
12/17
-9.2
5
09/08
-4.7
21
09/12
-4.5
22
09/13
4.3
75
09/20
10.2
96
09/27
-5.0
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Broncos logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
28
8
Yards / Game
24
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
7
Rushing Yards / Game
13
26

EPA

EPA / Play
31
18
EPA / Pass
30
16
EPA / Rush
26
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
14
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
23
31
Turnover EPA / Game
1
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
15
4th Down Efficiency
32
17
RZ Efficiency
27
29
Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Patriots logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
27
25
Yards / Game
26
20
Passing Yards / Game
28
27
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25

EPA

EPA / Play
18
20
EPA / Pass
28
14
EPA / Rush
4
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
20
Interceptions / Game
23
23
Fumbles / Game
5
28
Turnover EPA / Game
13
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
23
12
RZ Efficiency
24
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
-17
L
L
U
12/01
3
W
W
O
12/08
14
W
W
O
12/15
-20
L
L
U
12/22
10
W
W
O
12/29
1
W
L
U
09/14
-2
L
W
U
09/20
-5
L
W
O
09/27
-18
L
L
U
10/01
9
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
-6
L
L
O
12/08
-7
L
L
U
12/15
21
W
W
O
12/21
7
W
P
O
12/29
-3
L
L
O
01/04
-7
L
L
U
09/13
10
W
W
U
09/20
-5
L
L
O
09/27
16
W
W
O
10/05
-16
L
L
U