DENBroncos
-
16
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
68°F
15 mph
24
OAKRaiders
-
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
68°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
6
10
16
Raiders
7
7
0
10
24
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
357
Total Plays
57
54
Yards / Play
6.0
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.27
Passing Yards
249
--
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
22/26(85%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.67
Rushing Yards
95
98
Rush Attempts
23
28
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
46%
71%
3rd Down Conversions
6
10
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
25%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-5.67
--
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
44
62
Penalty EPA
-1.71
-7.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+4
Home nfelo
1,398
Away nfelo
1,430
Home Field
+42.1
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-5.7
Home QB Adjustment
-3.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.2
Market Regression
-13.7
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
28
19
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
20
6
EPA
EPA / Play
24
31
EPA / Pass
25
31
EPA / Rush
18
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
27
Interceptions / Game
12
29
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
32
RZ Efficiency
27
31
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
8
Yards / Game
12
12
Passing Yards / Game
24
6
Rushing Yards / Game
13
16
EPA
EPA / Play
14
15
EPA / Pass
6
14
EPA / Rush
21
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
17
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
18
28
Turnover EPA / Game
15
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
11
4th Down Efficiency
7
15
RZ Efficiency
22
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Raiders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U