DENBroncos
3-5
12
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
037
OAKRaiders
5-3
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
3
0
6
12
Raiders
7
3
10
17
37
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
357
Total Plays
69
66
Yards / Play
4.5
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.10
Passing Yards
247
--
Comp/Att
23/48(48%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.12
Rushing Yards
66
203
Rush Attempts
19
41
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
21
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
47%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-22.67
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-3.80
--
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
37
82
Penalty EPA
-7.34
-8.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,453
Home Field
+2.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+9.2
Home QB Adjustment
+12.2
Away QB Adjustment
+3.0
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.0
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
30
Yards / Game
24
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
13
23
EPA
EPA / Play
31
29
EPA / Pass
30
28
EPA / Rush
26
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
24
Interceptions / Game
32
23
Fumbles / Game
23
31
Turnover EPA / Game
1
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
30
4th Down Efficiency
32
31
RZ Efficiency
27
19
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
8
20
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
14
25
EPA
EPA / Play
11
20
EPA / Pass
14
14
EPA / Rush
12
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
20
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
32
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
12
4th Down Efficiency
3
12
RZ Efficiency
23
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Raiders
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-3-1
O/U