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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ raiders week 14, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
10-2
24
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
17
OAKRaiders
2-10
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
1
7
3
18
Raiders
7
0
0
10
17

Spread

OAK logo
+8.5

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
356
229
Total Plays
72
48
Yards / Play
4.9
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.00
Passing Yards
204
189
Comp/Att
31/38(82%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.03
Rushing Yards
152
40
Rush Attempts
31
12
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
27
16
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
58%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-8
-24
Sack EPA
-2.64
-5.98
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
-8.05
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market77.4%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-206
Home nfelo
1,355
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+16.4
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
-20.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.0
Net QB Adjustment
-28.4
Home QB Adjustment
-25.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.9
Market Regression
-23.9
Final Difference
-213.9
Model Spread
+8.5

Quarterbacks

B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Value
Ptile
09/21
-1.9
37
09/29
7.0
92
10/05
1.5
61
10/12
0.4
55
10/19
7.1
92
10/26
3.6
76
11/02
0.1
52
11/06
-7.7
6
11/16
0.3
54
11/30
2.4
67
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-25.6
Value
Ptile
09/21
1.3
60
09/28
-3.7
25
10/05
-7.1
8
10/12
-4.2
22
10/19
-5.7
14
11/02
4.7
82
11/06
-8.7
4
11/17
-4.5
20
11/23
-4.5
20
11/30
-4.0
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Broncos logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
14
25
Yards / Game
9
16
Passing Yards / Game
23
17
Rushing Yards / Game
19
18

EPA

EPA / Play
15
22
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
13
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
1
Interceptions / Game
16
24
Fumbles / Game
3
19
Turnover EPA / Game
27
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
32
4th Down Efficiency
22
21
RZ Efficiency
10
22
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Raiders logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
32
4
Yards / Game
32
3
Passing Yards / Game
22
22
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2

EPA

EPA / Play
31
11
EPA / Pass
28
10
EPA / Rush
32
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
32
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
2
24
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
10
RZ Efficiency
25
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-3
L
L
U
09/29
25
W
W
U
10/05
4
W
W
U
10/12
2
W
L
U
10/19
1
W
L
O
10/26
20
W
W
O
11/02
3
W
W
U
11/06
3
W
L
U
11/16
3
W
W
U
11/30
1
W
L
O
OAK logo

Raiders

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-17
L
L
O
09/28
-1
L
L
O
10/05
-34
L
L
U
10/12
10
W
W
U
10/19
-31
L
L
U
11/02
-1
L
W
O
11/06
-3
L
W
U
11/17
-17
L
L
O
11/23
-14
L
L
U
11/30
-17
L
L
O