DENBroncos
6-3
25
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
023
NOSaints
4-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
3
0
13
23
Saints
0
3
14
6
23
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
373
Total Plays
83
51
Yards / Play
4.1
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.27
Passing Yards
234
293
Comp/Att
25/40(63%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
10.1
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.20
Rushing Yards
103
80
Rush Attempts
37
21
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
20
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
58%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
11
4
3rd Down Attempts
19
9
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-9.50
-20.67
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-24
-10
Sack EPA
-6.57
-2.35
Penalties
1
3
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
-2.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+54
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+87.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+26.0
Home QB Adjustment
+25.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.5
Market Regression
+43.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+25.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
31
Yards / Game
27
26
Passing Yards / Game
19
28
Rushing Yards / Game
27
14
EPA
EPA / Play
25
28
EPA / Pass
23
27
EPA / Rush
30
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
28
Interceptions / Game
12
28
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
18
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
27
4th Down Efficiency
11
10
RZ Efficiency
27
18
Saints Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
3
Yards / Game
1
4
Passing Yards / Game
1
5
Rushing Yards / Game
15
28
EPA
EPA / Play
7
1
EPA / Pass
6
1
EPA / Rush
7
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
9
Interceptions / Game
18
14
Fumbles / Game
13
2
Turnover EPA / Game
6
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
5
4th Down Efficiency
2
8
RZ Efficiency
2
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
6-4
O/U