DENBroncos
0-1
21
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
64°F
5 mph
26
PITSteelers
1-0
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
64°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
3
11
7
21
Steelers
7
10
0
7
24
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
321
410
Total Plays
73
64
Yards / Play
4.4
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.15
Passing Yards
217
301
Comp/Att
19/40(48%)
29/41(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.03
Rushing Yards
104
109
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.50
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
6
--
3rd Down %
33%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.02
-9.47
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-61
-10
Sack EPA
-15.96
-1.76
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
30
89
Penalty EPA
+1.81
-10.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model68.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+8.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+26.9
Home QB Adjustment
+25.4
Away QB Adjustment
-1.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
138.5
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
D. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+25.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
29
8
Rushing Yards / Game
13
13
EPA
EPA / Play
31
2
EPA / Pass
30
2
EPA / Rush
26
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
32
Interceptions / Game
32
4
Fumbles / Game
23
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
6
4th Down Efficiency
32
1
RZ Efficiency
27
5
Steelers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
22
20
Passing Yards / Game
31
27
Rushing Yards / Game
32
25
EPA
EPA / Play
19
20
EPA / Pass
15
14
EPA / Rush
32
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
20
Interceptions / Game
25
23
Fumbles / Game
9
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
11
12
RZ Efficiency
8
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U