DENBroncos
3-1
19
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
71°F
9 mph
27
PITSteelers
1-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
71°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
3
0
13
19
Steelers
7
10
7
3
27
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
391
Total Plays
59
61
Yards / Play
6.3
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.21
Passing Yards
268
244
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
9.8
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.37
Rushing Yards
106
147
Rush Attempts
18
35
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
17%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.70
-6.05
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-20
-9
Sack EPA
-3.78
-6.05
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
67
59
Penalty EPA
-11.53
-5.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model50.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+57.0
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.0
Net QB Adjustment
-19.0
Home QB Adjustment
-11.6
Away QB Adjustment
+7.5
Market Regression
-17.7
Final Difference
-2.4
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
22
Yards / Game
19
27
Passing Yards / Game
11
14
Rushing Yards / Game
13
32
EPA
EPA / Play
15
14
EPA / Pass
13
18
EPA / Rush
23
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
17
Interceptions / Game
5
16
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
25
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
12
4th Down Efficiency
14
17
RZ Efficiency
21
11
Steelers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
2
Yards / Game
23
9
Passing Yards / Game
14
12
Rushing Yards / Game
30
14
EPA
EPA / Play
24
19
EPA / Pass
26
16
EPA / Rush
19
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
12
Interceptions / Game
6
17
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
23
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
4
RZ Efficiency
21
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Steelers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U