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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ steelers week 5, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
3-1
19
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
71°F
9 mph
27
PITSteelers
1-3
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
71°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
3
0
13
19
Steelers
7
10
7
3
27

Spread

PIT logo
+1

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
374
391
Total Plays
59
61
Yards / Play
6.3
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.21
Passing Yards
268
244
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
9.8
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.37
Rushing Yards
106
147
Rush Attempts
18
35
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
17%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.70
-6.05
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-20
-9
Sack EPA
-3.78
-6.05
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
67
59
Penalty EPA
-11.53
-5.75

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model51.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+15
Home nfelo
1,497
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+57.0
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.0
Net QB Adjustment
-19.0
Home QB Adjustment
-11.6
Away QB Adjustment
+7.5
Market Regression
-25.0
Final Difference
-9.7
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
Value
Ptile
11/15
0.0
46
11/29
-0.6
42
12/13
3.8
72
12/19
1.3
52
12/27
-5.4
13
01/03
-7.2
7
09/12
5.2
84
09/19
2.5
71
09/26
-0.5
48
10/03
-6.8
12
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
Value
Ptile
12/02
3.1
67
12/07
2.9
66
12/13
-4.2
18
12/21
-6.4
10
12/27
7.1
89
01/10
7.3
90
09/12
-3.1
30
09/19
-1.0
45
09/26
-3.7
26
10/03
-2.0
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Steelers Defense
Broncos logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
22
Yards / Game
19
27
Passing Yards / Game
11
14
Rushing Yards / Game
13
32

EPA

EPA / Play
15
14
EPA / Pass
13
18
EPA / Rush
23
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
17
Interceptions / Game
5
16
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
25
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
12
4th Down Efficiency
14
17
RZ Efficiency
21
11
Steelers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Steelers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
21
2
Yards / Game
23
9
Passing Yards / Game
14
12
Rushing Yards / Game
30
14

EPA

EPA / Play
24
19
EPA / Pass
26
16
EPA / Rush
19
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
12
Interceptions / Game
6
17
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
23
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
4
RZ Efficiency
21
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-28
L
L
U
12/06
-6
L
W
U
12/13
5
W
W
O
12/19
-29
L
L
O
12/27
-3
L
L
U
01/03
-1
L
W
O
09/12
14
W
W
U
09/19
10
W
W
U
09/26
26
W
W
U
10/03
-16
L
L
U
PIT logo

Steelers

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
-6
L
L
U
12/13
-11
L
L
U
12/21
-10
L
L
O
12/27
4
W
W
O
01/03
-2
L
W
O
01/10
-11
L
L
O
09/12
7
W
W
U
09/19
-9
L
L
U
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
-10
L
L
U