DENBroncos
6-2
18
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
015
HOUTexans
3-4
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
0
11
18
Texans
3
9
3
0
15
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
273
268
Total Plays
62
72
Yards / Play
4.4
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.20
Passing Yards
173
191
Comp/Att
18/38(47%)
23/40(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.06
Rushing Yards
100
77
Rush Attempts
23
28
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
15
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.85
+2.73
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-2
-25
Sack EPA
-0.85
-5.04
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
41
--
Penalty EPA
-5.54
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+80
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+64.0
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-4.7
Home QB Adjustment
+12.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.4
Market Regression
-4.9
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+17.4
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
1
Yards / Game
13
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3
EPA
EPA / Play
20
1
EPA / Pass
13
1
EPA / Rush
14
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
13
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
24
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
3
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
15
28
Texans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
3
Yards / Game
19
3
Passing Yards / Game
13
16
Rushing Yards / Game
23
4
EPA
EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
17
2
EPA / Rush
23
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
31
Interceptions / Game
10
22
Fumbles / Game
10
17
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
1
4th Down Efficiency
11
5
RZ Efficiency
31
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U