DENBroncos
3-6
23
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
027
MINVikings
7-3
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
10
10
3
0
23
Vikings
0
0
7
20
27
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
394
321
Total Plays
75
59
Yards / Play
5.3
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.05
Passing Yards
270
284
Comp/Att
18/40(45%)
29/36(81%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.19
Rushing Yards
124
37
Rush Attempts
33
18
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
28%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.24
-11.53
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-8
-35
Sack EPA
-2.91
-11.45
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
35
49
Penalty EPA
-5.22
-8.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+265
Home nfelo
1,587
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+37.8
Base HFA
+50.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-39.1
Surface Adj
+17.6
Time Adj
+9.0
Net QB Adjustment
+107.0
Home QB Adjustment
+14.7
Away QB Adjustment
-92.3
Market Regression
-12.0
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
B. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-92.3
Value
Ptile
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
6
Yards / Game
28
13
Passing Yards / Game
31
24
Rushing Yards / Game
20
17
EPA
EPA / Play
24
5
EPA / Pass
25
6
EPA / Rush
18
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
23
Interceptions / Game
12
3
Fumbles / Game
4
3
Turnover EPA / Game
26
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
22
RZ Efficiency
27
2
Vikings Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
32
6
Rushing Yards / Game
8
16
EPA
EPA / Play
10
15
EPA / Pass
9
14
EPA / Rush
13
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
17
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
10
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Vikings
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U