nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ vikings week 11, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

DEN logo
DENBroncos
3-6
23
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
27
MINVikings
7-3
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
10
10
3
0
23
Vikings
0
0
7
20
27

Spread

DEN logo
+10

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
394
321
Total Plays
75
59
Yards / Play
5.3
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.05
Passing Yards
270
284
Comp/Att
18/40(45%)
29/36(81%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.19
Rushing Yards
124
37
Rush Attempts
33
18
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
28%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.24
-11.53
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-8
-35
Sack EPA
-2.91
-11.45
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
35
49
Penalty EPA
-5.22
-8.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+268
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
+37.8
Base HFA
+50.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-39.1
Surface Adj
+17.6
Time Adj
+9.0
Net QB Adjustment
+107.0
Home QB Adjustment
+14.7
Away QB Adjustment
-92.3
Market Regression
-12.0
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

B. Allen headshot

B. Allen

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-92.3
Value
Ptile
11/03
-1.7
40
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
Value
Ptile
09/08
-1.6
42
09/15
-6.0
15
09/22
0.2
53
09/29
-2.9
31
10/06
3.7
77
10/13
6.9
90
10/20
8.9
95
10/24
0.9
59
11/03
1.1
61
11/10
3.5
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Vikings Defense
Broncos logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
28
6
Yards / Game
28
13
Passing Yards / Game
31
24
Rushing Yards / Game
20
17

EPA

EPA / Play
24
5
EPA / Pass
25
6
EPA / Rush
18
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
23
Interceptions / Game
12
3
Fumbles / Game
4
3
Turnover EPA / Game
26
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
22
RZ Efficiency
27
2
Vikings Offense vs Broncos Defense
Vikings logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
32
6
Rushing Yards / Game
8
16

EPA

EPA / Play
10
15
EPA / Pass
9
14
EPA / Rush
13
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
17
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
10
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
-14
L
L
U
09/09
-8
L
L
U
09/15
-2
L
W
U
09/22
-11
L
L
O
09/29
-2
L
L
O
10/06
7
W
W
U
10/13
16
W
W
U
10/17
-24
L
L
U
10/27
-2
L
W
U
11/03
5
W
W
O
MIN logo

Vikings

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
16
W
W
U
09/15
-5
L
L
U
09/22
20
W
W
O
09/29
-10
L
L
U
10/06
18
W
W
U
10/13
18
W
W
O
10/20
12
W
W
O
10/24
10
W
L
U
11/03
-3
L
L
O
11/10
4
W
W
O