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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ vikings week 13, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
6-5
35
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0
32
MINVikings
2-9
MIN logo
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
1
0
14
14
29
Vikings
3
10
7
10
30

Spread

DEN logo
-1

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
338
489
Total Plays
50
81
Yards / Play
6.8
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.05
Passing Yards
186
360
Comp/Att
10/15(67%)
30/48(63%)
Yards / Pass
12.4
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.42
-0.09
Rushing Yards
152
129
Rush Attempts
33
30
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
13
27
Passing 1st downs
7
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
27%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-9.05
-18.76
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-29
Sack EPA
-5.62
-9.40
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
73
54
Penalty EPA
-7.02
-6.71

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model45.3%
Spread Pick
MIN logo
Vikings+1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.7%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,447
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-14.6
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+14.8
Market Regression
+5.6
Final Difference
32.6
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

T. Tebow headshot

T. Tebow

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.8
Value
Ptile
12/19
4.5
80
12/26
2.6
66
01/02
2.3
64
10/23
-3.1
30
10/30
-7.2
9
11/06
6.5
88
11/13
0.8
58
11/17
2.4
69
11/27
-0.1
51
C. Ponder headshot

C. Ponder

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Value
Ptile
10/23
-3.0
31
10/30
-1.6
38
11/14
-6.0
14
11/20
-2.7
33
11/27
-2.0
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Vikings Defense
Broncos logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
25
31
Yards / Game
20
20
Passing Yards / Game
32
26
Rushing Yards / Game
1
10

EPA

EPA / Play
23
28
EPA / Pass
27
31
EPA / Rush
10
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
5
Interceptions / Game
5
31
Fumbles / Game
32
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
29
4th Down Efficiency
28
26
RZ Efficiency
26
16
Vikings Offense vs Broncos Defense
Vikings logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
18
26
Yards / Game
18
23
Passing Yards / Game
17
24
Rushing Yards / Game
4
23

EPA

EPA / Play
20
22
EPA / Pass
29
24
EPA / Rush
2
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
11
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
24
22
Turnover EPA / Game
15
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
8
4th Down Efficiency
17
6
RZ Efficiency
8
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
2
W
L
O
09/25
-3
L
W
U
10/02
-26
L
L
O
10/09
-5
L
L
O
10/23
3
W
W
U
10/30
-35
L
L
O
11/06
14
W
W
O
11/13
7
W
W
U
11/17
4
W
W
U
11/27
3
W
W
U
MIN logo

Vikings

2-8
SU
3-5-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/25
-3
L
P
O
10/02
-5
L
L
U
10/09
24
W
W
U
10/16
-29
L
L
O
10/23
-6
L
W
O
10/30
3
W
W
U
11/14
-38
L
L
O
11/20
-6
L
L
O
11/27
-10
L
P
U