DENBroncos
6-5
35
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
032
MINVikings
2-9
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
1
0
14
14
29
Vikings
3
10
7
10
30
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
338
489
Total Plays
50
81
Yards / Play
6.8
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.05
Passing Yards
186
360
Comp/Att
10/15(67%)
30/48(63%)
Yards / Pass
12.4
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.42
-0.09
Rushing Yards
152
129
Rush Attempts
33
30
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
27
Passing 1st downs
7
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
27%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-9.05
-18.76
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-29
Sack EPA
-5.62
-9.40
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
73
54
Penalty EPA
-7.02
-6.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model45.1%
Spread Pick
Vikings+1.0
Expected Value
+6.8%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+75
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,446
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-14.6
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+14.8
Market Regression
+6.6
Final Difference
34.2
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Tebow
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.8
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
31
Yards / Game
20
20
Passing Yards / Game
32
26
Rushing Yards / Game
1
10
EPA
EPA / Play
23
28
EPA / Pass
27
31
EPA / Rush
10
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
5
Interceptions / Game
5
31
Fumbles / Game
32
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
29
4th Down Efficiency
28
26
RZ Efficiency
26
16
Vikings Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
26
Yards / Game
18
23
Passing Yards / Game
17
24
Rushing Yards / Game
4
23
EPA
EPA / Play
20
22
EPA / Pass
29
24
EPA / Rush
2
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
11
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
24
22
Turnover EPA / Game
15
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
8
4th Down Efficiency
17
6
RZ Efficiency
8
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
2-8
SU
3-5-2
ATS
6-4
O/U