CLEBrowns
0-1
27
TBD
Paycor Stadium
76°F
5 mph
34
CINBengals
0-1
TBD
Paycor Stadium
76°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
7
7
10
27
Bengals
1
10
7
10
28
Spread
7
P
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
439
375
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
7.1
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.26
Passing Yards
309
295
Comp/Att
26/37(70%)
24/31(77%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
9.5
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.56
Rushing Yards
130
80
Rush Attempts
23
25
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
16
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.08
-2.57
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-13
-23
Sack EPA
-2.29
-3.35
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
103
54
Penalty EPA
-9.74
-6.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model70.6%
Spread Pick
Browns+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+121
Home nfelo
1,450
Away nfelo
1,392
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.5
Away QB Adjustment
-11.6
Market Regression
-24.7
Final Difference
151.9
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
Value
Ptile
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
8
Yards / Game
25
8
Passing Yards / Game
24
8
Rushing Yards / Game
24
14
EPA
EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
27
3
EPA / Rush
13
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
7
Interceptions / Game
27
17
Fumbles / Game
3
4
Turnover EPA / Game
17
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
10
4th Down Efficiency
21
7
RZ Efficiency
30
5
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
19
Yards / Game
23
22
Passing Yards / Game
22
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
18
EPA
EPA / Play
17
12
EPA / Pass
23
18
EPA / Rush
8
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
15
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
18
5
Turnover EPA / Game
19
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
14
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
18
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
7-3
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Bengals
3-7
SU
1-7-2
ATS
7-3
O/U