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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ bengals week 2, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
0-1
27
TBD
Paycor Stadium
76°F
5 mph
34
CINBengals
0-1
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
76°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
7
7
10
27
Bengals
1
10
7
10
28

Spread

CLE logo
CIN logo
7
P

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
439
375
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
7.1
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.26
Passing Yards
309
295
Comp/Att
26/37(70%)
24/31(77%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
9.5
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.56
Rushing Yards
130
80
Rush Attempts
23
25
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
16
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.08
-2.57
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-13
-23
Sack EPA
-2.29
-3.35
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
103
54
Penalty EPA
-9.74
-6.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model70.6%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+122
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,392
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.5
Away QB Adjustment
-11.6
Market Regression
-24.6
Final Difference
152.1
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

B. Weeden headshot

B. Weeden

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
Value
Ptile
09/09
-13.8
0
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
Value
Ptile
11/13
-2.4
34
11/20
0.4
55
11/27
4.2
77
12/04
-3.9
25
12/11
1.8
64
12/18
-3.7
27
12/24
2.8
72
01/01
0.2
53
01/07
-5.4
16
09/10
-4.0
25

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Browns logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
24
8
Yards / Game
25
8
Passing Yards / Game
24
8
Rushing Yards / Game
24
14

EPA

EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
27
3
EPA / Rush
13
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
7
Interceptions / Game
27
17
Fumbles / Game
3
4
Turnover EPA / Game
17
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
10
4th Down Efficiency
21
7
RZ Efficiency
30
5
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Bengals logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
13
19
Yards / Game
23
22
Passing Yards / Game
22
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
18

EPA

EPA / Play
17
12
EPA / Pass
23
18
EPA / Rush
8
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
15
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
18
5
Turnover EPA / Game
19
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
14
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
18
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
7-3
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-18
L
L
U
11/13
-1
L
L
U
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/27
-3
L
W
O
12/04
-14
L
L
U
12/08
-11
L
W
U
12/18
-3
L
W
P
12/24
-6
L
W
U
01/01
-4
L
W
U
09/09
-1
L
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

3-7
SU
1-7-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-7
L
L
O
11/20
-7
L
P
O
11/27
3
W
L
O
12/04
-28
L
L
U
12/11
-1
L
L
O
12/18
7
W
P
U
12/24
7
W
W
U
01/01
-8
L
L
O
01/07
-21
L
L
O
09/10
-31
L
L
O