CLEBrowns
4-6
20
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
7 mph
23
CINBengals
6-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
10
3
0
20
Bengals
7
0
10
6
23
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
274
389
Total Plays
66
65
Yards / Play
4.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.02
Passing Yards
140
257
Comp/Att
16/34(47%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.30
Rushing Yards
134
132
Rush Attempts
30
32
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.03
-4.44
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-13
Sack EPA
-3.06
-5.30
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
15
35
Penalty EPA
-0.51
-3.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+160
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,391
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.5
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
29
6
Passing Yards / Game
20
19
Rushing Yards / Game
28
12
EPA
EPA / Play
26
10
EPA / Pass
23
11
EPA / Rush
24
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
9
29
Fumbles / Game
1
9
Turnover EPA / Game
27
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
14
4th Down Efficiency
7
8
RZ Efficiency
29
29
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
5
Yards / Game
22
10
Passing Yards / Game
19
6
Rushing Yards / Game
21
30
EPA
EPA / Play
19
18
EPA / Pass
18
12
EPA / Rush
21
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
14
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
4
4
Turnover EPA / Game
26
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
16
RZ Efficiency
25
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
8-2
O/U