CLEBrowns
3-6
35
TBD
Paycor Stadium
44°F
4 mph
20
CINBengals
5-5
TBD
Paycor Stadium
44°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
14
14
7
0
35
Bengals
0
7
7
6
20
Spread
+0
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
372
Total Plays
61
67
Yards / Play
5.6
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
243
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
27/46(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.86
+0.06
Rushing Yards
84
129
Rush Attempts
35
20
Yards / Rush
2.4
6.5
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
25
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
5
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.95
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-2.29
Penalties
7
13
Penalty Yards
--
96
Penalty EPA
--
-10.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
N/A
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model47.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+43
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,402
Home Field
+6.8
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.5
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.8
Home QB Adjustment
-4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+19.1
Market Regression
-48.8
Final Difference
16.5
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
30
Yards / Game
11
32
Passing Yards / Game
30
10
Rushing Yards / Game
13
29
EPA
EPA / Play
24
29
EPA / Pass
23
29
EPA / Rush
14
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
19
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
14
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
32
4th Down Efficiency
29
26
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
21
Yards / Game
26
30
Passing Yards / Game
22
31
Rushing Yards / Game
21
28
EPA
EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
18
9
EPA / Rush
19
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
1
1
Turnover EPA / Game
24
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
6
4th Down Efficiency
18
27
RZ Efficiency
3
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
3-6-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U