nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ bengals week 12, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CLE logo
CLEBrowns
3-6
35
TBD
Paycor Stadium
44°F
4 mph
20
CINBengals
5-5
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
44°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
14
14
7
0
35
Bengals
0
7
7
6
20

Spread

CLE logo
+0

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
342
372
Total Plays
61
67
Yards / Play
5.6
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
243
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
27/46(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.86
+0.06
Rushing Yards
84
129
Rush Attempts
35
20
Yards / Rush
2.4
6.5
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
24
25
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
5
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.95
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-2.29
Penalties
7
13
Penalty Yards
--
96
Penalty EPA
--
-10.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
N/A
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model47.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,397
Home Field
+7.0
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.1
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.8
Home QB Adjustment
-4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+19.1
Market Regression
-48.6
Final Difference
16.8
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
Value
Ptile
09/30
-3.5
25
10/07
-0.6
42
10/14
-9.6
4
10/21
-1.0
39
10/28
-1.9
34
11/04
2.4
66
11/11
5.5
83
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Value
Ptile
09/09
1.7
59
09/13
7.5
91
09/23
-3.2
26
09/30
4.0
74
10/07
-0.9
41
10/14
-0.2
45
10/21
-6.6
11
10/28
0.6
50
11/11
-9.6
4
11/18
2.4
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Browns logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
19
30
Yards / Game
11
32
Passing Yards / Game
30
10
Rushing Yards / Game
13
29

EPA

EPA / Play
24
29
EPA / Pass
23
29
EPA / Rush
14
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
19
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
14
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
32
4th Down Efficiency
29
26
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Bengals logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
17
21
Yards / Game
26
30
Passing Yards / Game
22
31
Rushing Yards / Game
21
28

EPA

EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
18
9
EPA / Rush
19
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
1
1
Turnover EPA / Game
24
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
6
4th Down Efficiency
18
27
RZ Efficiency
3
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

3-6-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
0
T
W
O
09/16
-3
L
W
U
09/20
4
W
W
U
09/30
-3
L
L
O
10/07
3
W
W
U
10/14
-24
L
L
O
10/21
-3
L
W
U
10/28
-15
L
L
O
11/04
-16
L
L
O
11/11
12
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
11
W
W
O
09/13
11
W
W
O
09/23
-10
L
L
O
09/30
1
W
W
O
10/07
10
W
W
U
10/14
-7
L
L
U
10/21
-35
L
L
U
10/28
3
W
L
O
11/11
-37
L
L
O
11/18
-3
L
W
O