CLEBrowns
3-11
6
TBD
Paycor Stadium
33°F
6 mph
24
CINBengals
6-8
TBD
Paycor Stadium
33°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
0
6
0
6
Bengals
7
10
0
7
24
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
273
326
Total Plays
63
56
Yards / Play
4.3
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.27
+0.04
Passing Yards
125
210
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.52
+0.10
Rushing Yards
148
116
Rush Attempts
24
22
Yards / Rush
6.2
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.95
-6.45
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-32
-42
Sack EPA
-6.58
-11.45
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
41
35
Penalty EPA
-4.96
-4.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model80.5%
Spread Pick
Bengals-10.0
Expected Value
+3.8%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+287
Home nfelo
1,564
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+35.3
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
-17.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+94.4
Home QB Adjustment
+29.2
Away QB Adjustment
-65.3
Market Regression
+10.9
Final Difference
246.0
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
D. Thompson-Robinson
Proj. Value
-4.7
Team Elo Adj
-65.3
Value
Ptile
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+29.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
25
Yards / Game
28
24
Passing Yards / Game
12
13
Rushing Yards / Game
29
19
EPA
EPA / Play
32
28
EPA / Pass
32
17
EPA / Rush
22
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
32
9
Fumbles / Game
17
8
Turnover EPA / Game
1
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
23
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
27
Yards / Game
9
18
Passing Yards / Game
1
10
Rushing Yards / Game
30
21
EPA
EPA / Play
6
9
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
14
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
2
Interceptions / Game
9
32
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
6
4th Down Efficiency
21
3
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U