CLEBrowns
11-5
14
TBD
Paycor Stadium
38°F
12 mph
31
CINBengals
8-8
TBD
Paycor Stadium
38°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
0
0
14
14
Bengals
14
10
7
0
31
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
244
328
Total Plays
53
61
Yards / Play
4.6
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.10
Passing Yards
140
145
Comp/Att
13/26(50%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.42
-0.04
Rushing Yards
104
183
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
4.3
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
22
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
18%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.62
-3.90
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-26
-31
Sack EPA
-5.70
-5.95
Penalties
7
1
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-7.15
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model63.8%
Spread Pick
Browns+7.0
Expected Value
+15.6%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,553
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+41.4
Base HFA
+46.1
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.4
Home QB Adjustment
-66.2
Away QB Adjustment
-62.8
Market Regression
+33.0
Final Difference
98.4
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Driskel
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-62.8
J. Browning
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-66.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
20
Yards / Game
16
31
Passing Yards / Game
5
30
Rushing Yards / Game
13
26
EPA
EPA / Play
28
26
EPA / Pass
28
25
EPA / Rush
23
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
7
Interceptions / Game
32
5
Fumbles / Game
26
21
Turnover EPA / Game
1
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
23
4th Down Efficiency
16
8
RZ Efficiency
15
10
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
21
Yards / Game
23
1
Passing Yards / Game
9
2
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10
EPA
EPA / Play
12
1
EPA / Pass
15
1
EPA / Rush
15
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
19
5
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
25
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
1
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
10
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
7-3
SU
6-2-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U