CLEBrowns
3-8
32
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
48°F
4 mph
41
DENBroncos
7-5
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
48°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
10
8
7
32
Broncos
7
8
10
4
29
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
554
400
Total Plays
85
61
Yards / Play
6.5
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.12
Passing Yards
477
--
Comp/Att
34/59(58%)
18/35(51%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.09
Rushing Yards
77
106
Rush Attempts
23
26
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
19
Passing 1st downs
24
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
47%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
19
13
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-26.66
-6.32
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-22
--
Sack EPA
-3.48
--
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
46
57
Penalty EPA
-4.48
-6.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+157
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,427
Home Field
+55.1
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.5
Net QB Adjustment
+3.7
Home QB Adjustment
+23.8
Away QB Adjustment
+20.1
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+20.1
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+23.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
3
Yards / Game
28
10
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
29
5
EPA
EPA / Play
32
3
EPA / Pass
32
2
EPA / Rush
22
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
29
Interceptions / Game
32
11
Fumbles / Game
17
13
Turnover EPA / Game
1
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
13
4th Down Efficiency
18
15
RZ Efficiency
27
1
Broncos Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
27
Yards / Game
22
18
Passing Yards / Game
27
10
Rushing Yards / Game
17
21
EPA
EPA / Play
12
9
EPA / Pass
16
21
EPA / Rush
15
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
2
Interceptions / Game
15
32
Fumbles / Game
12
8
Turnover EPA / Game
25
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
6
4th Down Efficiency
9
3
RZ Efficiency
8
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U