CLEBrowns
2-3
23
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
7 mph
26
TBBuccaneers
2-3
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Browns
0
0
7
14
0
21
Buccaneers
3
13
7
0
3
26
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
305
456
Total Plays
62
88
Yards / Play
4.9
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.06
Passing Yards
186
342
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
32/52(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.20
Rushing Yards
119
114
Rush Attempts
23
32
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.26
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
34
Passing 1st downs
8
20
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
6
3rd Down %
21%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-13.84
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-29
-23
Sack EPA
-7.74
-8.95
Penalties
14
8
Penalty Yards
114
65
Penalty EPA
-9.16
-7.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+57.5
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.9
Home QB Adjustment
+0.4
Away QB Adjustment
+2.3
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Value
Ptile
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
31
Yards / Game
11
27
Passing Yards / Game
30
32
Rushing Yards / Game
13
24
EPA
EPA / Play
24
31
EPA / Pass
23
31
EPA / Rush
14
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
14
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
7
RZ Efficiency
5
32
Buccaneers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
21
Yards / Game
2
30
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
28
28
EPA
EPA / Play
12
16
EPA / Pass
9
9
EPA / Rush
26
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
32
3
Fumbles / Game
25
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
6
4th Down Efficiency
5
27
RZ Efficiency
15
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-7-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U