CLEBrowns
6-7
24
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
038
ARICardinals
3-9
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
10
7
7
31
Cardinals
7
14
7
10
38
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
473
439
Total Plays
69
53
Yards / Play
6.9
8.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.25
Passing Yards
297
--
Comp/Att
31/44(70%)
16/22(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.32
Rushing Yards
176
190
Rush Attempts
25
31
Yards / Rush
7.0
6.1
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
22
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
64%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
7
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.26
-5.81
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-1.40
--
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
55
24
Penalty EPA
-5.48
-4.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-78
Home nfelo
1,344
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+64.1
Base HFA
+47.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+16.9
Net QB Adjustment
+19.5
Home QB Adjustment
+10.5
Away QB Adjustment
-9.0
Market Regression
-35.5
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.0
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
28
Yards / Game
18
32
Passing Yards / Game
14
32
Rushing Yards / Game
12
23
EPA
EPA / Play
22
28
EPA / Pass
20
30
EPA / Rush
17
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
6
Interceptions / Game
30
30
Fumbles / Game
2
14
Turnover EPA / Game
7
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
30
4th Down Efficiency
23
1
RZ Efficiency
13
22
Cardinals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
20
Yards / Game
22
21
Passing Yards / Game
22
10
Rushing Yards / Game
10
29
EPA
EPA / Play
17
20
EPA / Pass
19
15
EPA / Rush
5
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
17
Interceptions / Game
16
10
Fumbles / Game
4
25
Turnover EPA / Game
25
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
12
4th Down Efficiency
2
4
RZ Efficiency
30
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U