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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ chargers week 5, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
3-1
42
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
47
LACChargers
3-1
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
17
7
15
42
Chargers
7
6
8
26
47

Spread

LAC logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
533
495
Total Plays
69
70
Yards / Play
7.7
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.30
Passing Yards
303
383
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
26/44(59%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.29
Rushing Yards
230
112
Rush Attempts
35
24
Yards / Rush
6.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.27
+0.32
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
25
27
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.38
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-4
-17
Sack EPA
-1.37
-3.40
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
77
49
Penalty EPA
-11.23
-6.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,578
Home Field
+64.2
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+21.4
Home QB Adjustment
+10.3
Away QB Adjustment
-11.1
Market Regression
+20.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-11.1
Value
Ptile
12/14
6.8
87
12/20
7.2
89
12/27
-7.3
7
01/03
1.8
57
01/10
7.3
90
01/17
-2.3
28
09/12
-0.1
53
09/19
-0.1
53
09/26
-2.0
38
10/03
-8.1
8
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
Value
Ptile
11/29
-2.5
26
12/06
-10.4
3
12/13
2.3
61
12/17
6.1
84
12/27
0.7
50
01/03
6.1
84
09/12
0.8
59
09/19
0.8
59
09/26
7.2
92
10/04
1.4
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Chargers Defense
Browns logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
29
Yards / Game
18
23
Passing Yards / Game
28
23
Rushing Yards / Game
4
30

EPA

EPA / Play
20
25
EPA / Pass
22
17
EPA / Rush
4
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
27
Interceptions / Game
14
22
Fumbles / Game
20
7
Turnover EPA / Game
21
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
30
1
RZ Efficiency
12
27
Chargers Offense vs Browns Defense
Chargers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
5
14
Yards / Game
4
3
Passing Yards / Game
5
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
11

EPA

EPA / Play
7
21
EPA / Pass
7
11
EPA / Rush
16
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
6
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
7
30
Turnover EPA / Game
15
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
14
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
3
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
-5
L
L
O
12/20
14
W
W
U
12/27
-7
L
L
U
01/03
2
W
L
O
01/10
11
W
W
O
01/17
-5
L
W
U
09/12
-4
L
W
O
09/19
10
W
L
O
09/26
20
W
W
U
10/03
7
W
W
U
LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-10
L
L
U
12/06
-45
L
L
U
12/13
3
W
W
U
12/17
3
W
W
O
12/27
3
W
W
U
01/03
17
W
W
O
09/12
4
W
W
U
09/19
-3
L
L
U
09/26
6
W
W
U
10/04
14
W
W
U