CLEBrowns
3-1
42
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
047
LACChargers
3-1
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
17
7
15
42
Chargers
7
6
8
26
47
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
533
495
Total Plays
69
70
Yards / Play
7.7
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.30
Passing Yards
303
383
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
26/44(59%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.29
Rushing Yards
230
112
Rush Attempts
35
24
Yards / Rush
6.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.27
+0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
27
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.38
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-4
-17
Sack EPA
-1.37
-3.40
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
77
49
Penalty EPA
-11.23
-6.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+46
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,580
Home Field
+64.1
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+21.4
Home QB Adjustment
+10.3
Away QB Adjustment
-11.1
Market Regression
+20.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-11.1
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
29
Yards / Game
18
23
Passing Yards / Game
28
23
Rushing Yards / Game
4
30
EPA
EPA / Play
20
25
EPA / Pass
22
17
EPA / Rush
4
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
27
Interceptions / Game
14
22
Fumbles / Game
20
7
Turnover EPA / Game
21
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
30
1
RZ Efficiency
12
27
Chargers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
14
Yards / Game
4
3
Passing Yards / Game
5
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
11
EPA
EPA / Play
7
21
EPA / Pass
7
11
EPA / Rush
16
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
6
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
7
30
Turnover EPA / Game
15
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
14
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
3
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U