CLEBrowns
0-11
10
TBD
StubHub Center
68°F
7 mph
19
LACChargers
5-6
TBD
StubHub Center
68°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
7
0
3
10
Chargers
0
9
10
0
19
Spread
+13.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
291
429
Total Plays
57
69
Yards / Play
5.1
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.11
Passing Yards
202
335
Comp/Att
15/32(47%)
31/43(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.35
Rushing Yards
89
94
Rush Attempts
22
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
7
19
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
45%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.39
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-13
-9
Sack EPA
-6.25
-0.69
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
24
62
Penalty EPA
-3.02
-7.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.9%
Spread Pick
Chargers-13.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+367
Home nfelo
1,569
Away nfelo
1,288
Home Field
+65.6
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+9.9
Net QB Adjustment
+20.8
Home QB Adjustment
+21.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
+2.7
Final Difference
328.2
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
D. Kizer
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
1
Yards / Game
24
14
Passing Yards / Game
15
18
Rushing Yards / Game
18
31
EPA
EPA / Play
31
10
EPA / Pass
32
3
EPA / Rush
4
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
32
Interceptions / Game
32
5
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
1
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
19
4th Down Efficiency
12
5
RZ Efficiency
24
1
Chargers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
31
Yards / Game
5
13
Passing Yards / Game
16
31
Rushing Yards / Game
24
7
EPA
EPA / Play
8
27
EPA / Pass
4
27
EPA / Rush
21
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
10
31
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
30
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
18
18
RZ Efficiency
27
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
0-10
SU
1-9
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U