CLEBrowns
1-5
13
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
017
INDColts
2-3
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
6
7
0
13
Colts
7
7
3
0
17
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
319
321
Total Plays
58
69
Yards / Play
5.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.00
+0.04
Passing Yards
--
173
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.08
Rushing Yards
55
148
Rush Attempts
17
37
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
46%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.87
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-6.96
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
75
50
Penalty EPA
-7.87
-5.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model53.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,371
Away nfelo
1,401
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.4
Home QB Adjustment
+3.9
Away QB Adjustment
+1.5
Market Regression
-41.6
Final Difference
23.8
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
21
Yards / Game
25
27
Passing Yards / Game
24
10
Rushing Yards / Game
24
29
EPA
EPA / Play
26
26
EPA / Pass
27
27
EPA / Rush
13
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
9
Interceptions / Game
27
22
Fumbles / Game
3
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
15
4th Down Efficiency
21
9
RZ Efficiency
30
8
Colts Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
10
22
Passing Yards / Game
5
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
18
EPA
EPA / Play
16
12
EPA / Pass
17
18
EPA / Rush
11
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
15
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
11
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
21
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U