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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ giants week 5, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
0-4
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
51°F
2 mph
41
NYGGiants
2-2
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
51°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
14
3
3
7
27
Giants
7
20
7
7
41

Spread

NYG logo
-8

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
375
502
Total Plays
54
71
Yards / Play
6.9
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.28
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.25
Rushing Yards
84
243
Rush Attempts
19
34
Yards / Rush
4.4
7.1
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
15
30
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
25%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.43
-8.24
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
91
25
Penalty EPA
-10.05
-2.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model81.2%
Spread Pick
NYG logo
Giants-8.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+21.3%
Cover Probability
62.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+300
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,381
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.7
Home QB Adjustment
+15.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.8
Market Regression
-14.2
Final Difference
253.9
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

B. Weeden headshot

B. Weeden

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Value
Ptile
09/09
-13.8
0
09/16
6.3
88
09/23
-5.3
16
09/27
-2.2
34
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
Value
Ptile
12/24
-4.9
19
01/01
8.3
94
01/08
8.2
94
01/15
5.2
82
01/22
-1.1
44
02/05
3.6
74
09/05
-0.9
43
09/16
6.1
87
09/20
5.1
81
09/30
4.4
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Giants Defense
Browns logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
24
10
Yards / Game
25
31
Passing Yards / Game
24
13
Rushing Yards / Game
24
24

EPA

EPA / Play
26
20
EPA / Pass
27
22
EPA / Rush
13
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
32
Interceptions / Game
27
3
Fumbles / Game
3
12
Turnover EPA / Game
17
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
30
4th Down Efficiency
21
17
RZ Efficiency
30
4
Giants Offense vs Browns Defense
Giants logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
5
19
Yards / Game
16
22
Passing Yards / Game
32
20
Rushing Yards / Game
14
18

EPA

EPA / Play
3
12
EPA / Pass
12
18
EPA / Rush
7
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
15
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
24
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
14
4th Down Efficiency
17
27
RZ Efficiency
13
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

0-10
SU
7-2-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
-3
L
W
O
12/04
-14
L
L
U
12/08
-11
L
W
U
12/18
-3
L
W
P
12/24
-6
L
W
U
01/01
-4
L
W
U
09/09
-1
L
W
U
09/16
-7
L
P
O
09/23
-10
L
L
U
09/27
-7
L
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
15
W
W
U
01/01
17
W
W
U
01/08
22
W
W
U
01/15
17
W
W
O
01/22
3
W
W
U
02/05
4
W
W
U
09/05
-7
L
L
U
09/16
7
W
L
O
09/20
29
W
W
U
09/30
-2
L
L
U