CLEBrowns
7-3
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
1 mph
25
JAXJaguars
1-9
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
10
3
7
27
Jaguars
3
10
6
6
25
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
459
375
Total Plays
64
62
Yards / Play
7.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.18
Passing Yards
252
--
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.10
Rushing Yards
207
140
Rush Attempts
33
25
Yards / Rush
6.3
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
22
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
45%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.99
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-2.30
--
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
47
24
Penalty EPA
-6.20
-3.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model70.1%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+7.5
Expected Value
+12.8%
Cover Probability
59.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-111
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.6
Home QB Adjustment
-5.7
Away QB Adjustment
-12.4
Market Regression
-7.7
Final Difference
-148.3
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.4
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
31
Yards / Game
16
31
Passing Yards / Game
32
23
Rushing Yards / Game
4
30
EPA
EPA / Play
8
30
EPA / Pass
8
30
EPA / Rush
10
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
7
Interceptions / Game
4
16
Fumbles / Game
18
28
Turnover EPA / Game
23
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
21
4th Down Efficiency
27
26
RZ Efficiency
4
24
Jaguars Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
22
Yards / Game
27
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
24
Rushing Yards / Game
29
9
EPA
EPA / Play
30
22
EPA / Pass
26
23
EPA / Rush
17
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
28
Interceptions / Game
27
10
Fumbles / Game
20
8
Turnover EPA / Game
11
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
25
4th Down Efficiency
31
32
RZ Efficiency
14
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U