CLEBrowns
3-3
13
TBD
Lambeau Field
46°F
8 mph
31
GBPackers
3-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
46°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
3
7
13
Packers
14
3
0
14
31
Spread
-8.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
216
357
Total Plays
68
66
Yards / Play
3.2
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.24
Passing Yards
133
253
Comp/Att
17/42(40%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
3.2
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.40
Rushing Yards
83
104
Rush Attempts
23
29
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
26
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
39%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.53
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-7
Sack EPA
-1.76
-2.41
Penalties
11
10
Penalty Yards
106
97
Penalty EPA
-10.76
-6.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model82.1%
Spread Pick
Packers-8.5
Expected Value
+20.2%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+310
Home nfelo
1,660
Away nfelo
1,443
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+20.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-17.3
Market Regression
-14.7
Final Difference
264.3
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-17.3
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
24
Yards / Game
18
24
Passing Yards / Game
8
29
Rushing Yards / Game
28
25
EPA
EPA / Play
25
28
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
14
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
8
Interceptions / Game
24
26
Fumbles / Game
9
9
Turnover EPA / Game
14
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
17
4th Down Efficiency
17
25
RZ Efficiency
22
18
Packers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
23
Yards / Game
4
9
Passing Yards / Game
5
9
Rushing Yards / Game
7
18
EPA
EPA / Play
8
17
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
4
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
3
Interceptions / Game
16
19
Fumbles / Game
8
24
Turnover EPA / Game
13
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
31
4th Down Efficiency
2
16
RZ Efficiency
25
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U