CLEBrowns
2-5
13
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
7 mph
32
NEPatriots
5-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
0
0
6
13
Patriots
3
6
21
0
30
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
213
422
Total Plays
53
65
Yards / Play
4.0
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.39
-0.01
Passing Yards
145
245
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
18/24(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
10.2
EPA / Pass
-0.55
+0.27
Rushing Yards
68
177
Rush Attempts
16
35
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
23
Passing 1st downs
7
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
18%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.65
-8.15
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-11
-37
Sack EPA
-1.32
-8.13
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
31
54
Penalty EPA
-5.05
-6.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+165
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,443
Home Field
+55.6
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+66.1
Home QB Adjustment
+23.9
Away QB Adjustment
-42.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
D. Gabriel
Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-42.2
Value
Ptile
D. Maye
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+23.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
31
8
Passing Yards / Game
25
27
Rushing Yards / Game
26
1
EPA
EPA / Play
32
8
EPA / Pass
32
14
EPA / Rush
18
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
6
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
6
16
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
11
4th Down Efficiency
18
2
RZ Efficiency
24
31
Patriots Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
18
Yards / Game
9
2
Passing Yards / Game
1
1
Rushing Yards / Game
20
14
EPA
EPA / Play
6
5
EPA / Pass
1
10
EPA / Rush
28
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
10
Interceptions / Game
9
8
Fumbles / Game
26
19
Turnover EPA / Game
14
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
8
4th Down Efficiency
1
15
RZ Efficiency
17
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U