CLEBrowns
0-3
16
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
77°F
5 mph
23
BALRavens
2-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
77°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
7
3
6
16
Ravens
0
9
8
0
17
Spread
+11
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
357
438
Total Plays
70
77
Yards / Play
5.1
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.02
Passing Yards
314
337
Comp/Att
25/52(48%)
28/46(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.12
Rushing Yards
43
101
Rush Attempts
17
27
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
17
16
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
20%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.51
+0.20
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-6
-19
Sack EPA
-1.65
-4.53
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
55
100
Penalty EPA
-5.70
-7.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model84.4%
Spread Pick
Ravens-11.0
Expected Value
+3.7%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+331
Home nfelo
1,609
Away nfelo
1,356
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.6
Home QB Adjustment
+15.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.7
Market Regression
+2.9
Final Difference
293.6
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Value
Ptile
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
25
23
Passing Yards / Game
24
25
Rushing Yards / Game
24
22
EPA
EPA / Play
26
16
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
13
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
19
Interceptions / Game
27
13
Fumbles / Game
3
11
Turnover EPA / Game
17
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
11
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
30
1
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
19
Yards / Game
11
22
Passing Yards / Game
17
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
18
EPA
EPA / Play
10
12
EPA / Pass
13
18
EPA / Rush
17
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
15
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
12
5
Turnover EPA / Game
27
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
14
4th Down Efficiency
26
27
RZ Efficiency
6
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
7-2-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U