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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ ravens week 4, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
0-3
16
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
77°F
5 mph
23
BALRavens
2-1
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
77°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
7
3
6
16
Ravens
0
9
8
0
17

Spread

CLE logo
+11

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
357
438
Total Plays
70
77
Yards / Play
5.1
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.02
Passing Yards
314
337
Comp/Att
25/52(48%)
28/46(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.12
Rushing Yards
43
101
Rush Attempts
17
27
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
17
16
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
20%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.51
+0.20
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-6
-19
Sack EPA
-1.65
-4.53
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
55
100
Penalty EPA
-5.70
-7.51

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-13.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model84.5%
Spread Pick
BAL logo
Ravens-11.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.7%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+331
Home nfelo
1,610
Away nfelo
1,356
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.6
Home QB Adjustment
+15.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.7
Market Regression
+3.1
Final Difference
293.9
Model Spread
-13.0

Quarterbacks

B. Weeden headshot

B. Weeden

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Value
Ptile
09/09
-13.8
0
09/16
6.3
88
09/23
-5.3
16
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
Value
Ptile
12/04
-4.1
24
12/11
0.2
54
12/18
-3.0
31
12/24
-1.1
43
01/01
0.8
58
01/15
-3.1
31
01/22
2.6
70
09/10
4.2
76
09/16
-2.0
36
09/23
9.4
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Browns logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
25
23
Passing Yards / Game
24
25
Rushing Yards / Game
24
22

EPA

EPA / Play
26
16
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
13
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
19
Interceptions / Game
27
13
Fumbles / Game
3
11
Turnover EPA / Game
17
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
11
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
30
1
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Ravens logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
9
19
Yards / Game
11
22
Passing Yards / Game
17
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
18

EPA

EPA / Play
10
12
EPA / Pass
13
18
EPA / Rush
17
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
15
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
12
5
Turnover EPA / Game
27
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
14
4th Down Efficiency
26
27
RZ Efficiency
6
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
7-2-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/27
-3
L
W
O
12/04
-14
L
L
U
12/08
-11
L
W
U
12/18
-3
L
W
P
12/24
-6
L
W
U
01/01
-4
L
W
U
09/09
-1
L
W
U
09/16
-7
L
P
O
09/23
-10
L
L
U
BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
14
W
W
U
12/11
14
W
L
U
12/18
-20
L
L
O
12/24
6
W
L
U
01/01
8
W
W
O
01/15
7
W
L
U
01/22
-3
L
W
U
09/10
31
W
W
O
09/16
-1
L
W
O
09/23
1
W
L
O