CLEBrowns
2-4
20
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
023
BALRavens
3-3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
10
0
3
7
20
Ravens
3
10
7
3
23
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
336
254
Total Plays
56
63
Yards / Play
6.0
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.04
Passing Yards
223
94
Comp/Att
22/27(81%)
9/16(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.27
Rushing Yards
113
160
Rush Attempts
24
44
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
8
5
Rushing 1st downs
8
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
18%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-4.46
-3.53
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-35
-26
Sack EPA
-8.80
-4.93
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
45
53
Penalty EPA
-6.00
-2.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+164
Home nfelo
1,571
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+21.5
Base HFA
+39.2
Divisional Adj
-17.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+73.4
Home QB Adjustment
+15.5
Away QB Adjustment
-57.9
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-57.9
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
3
Yards / Game
15
6
Passing Yards / Game
14
31
Rushing Yards / Game
5
3
EPA
EPA / Play
15
11
EPA / Pass
20
18
EPA / Rush
4
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
21
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
28
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
28
RZ Efficiency
20
4
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
16
12
Passing Yards / Game
28
16
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25
EPA
EPA / Play
12
23
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
5
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
12
Interceptions / Game
16
22
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
18
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
9
RZ Efficiency
30
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U