CLEBrowns
2-7
14
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
035
NOSaints
3-7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
6
0
8
0
14
Saints
7
7
0
21
35
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
445
473
Total Plays
72
58
Yards / Play
6.2
8.2
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.27
Passing Yards
379
259
Comp/Att
30/49(61%)
22/29(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.18
Rushing Yards
66
214
Rush Attempts
20
28
Yards / Rush
3.3
7.6
EPA / Rush
-0.34
+0.44
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
23%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.54
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-7
Sack EPA
-4.52
-1.40
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
14
41
Penalty EPA
-1.82
-5.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model47.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,449
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+16.3
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.3
Surface Adj
+14.5
Time Adj
-7.4
Net QB Adjustment
+9.0
Home QB Adjustment
+19.3
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
+2.7
Final Difference
18.0
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+19.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
18
Yards / Game
28
30
Passing Yards / Game
12
28
Rushing Yards / Game
29
30
EPA
EPA / Play
32
13
EPA / Pass
32
9
EPA / Rush
22
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
20
Interceptions / Game
32
12
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
1
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
21
4th Down Efficiency
18
10
RZ Efficiency
27
14
Saints Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
27
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
15
21
EPA
EPA / Play
26
9
EPA / Pass
25
21
EPA / Rush
10
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
17
32
Fumbles / Game
4
8
Turnover EPA / Game
19
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
17
3
RZ Efficiency
12
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U