CLEBrowns
7-8
14
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
25°F
12 mph
26
PITSteelers
7-7
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
25°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
0
7
7
14
Steelers
0
10
3
13
26
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
232
299
Total Plays
67
79
Yards / Play
3.5
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.05
Passing Yards
139
109
Comp/Att
16/38(42%)
24/46(52%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
2.4
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.38
Rushing Yards
93
190
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
29%
28%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
18
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.52
-0.43
Sacks
9
2
Sack Yards
-46
-14
Sack EPA
-13.20
-3.65
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
77
51
Penalty EPA
-8.02
-6.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model59.1%
Spread Pick
Steelers+3.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-20
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+19.9
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.6
Home QB Adjustment
-20.1
Away QB Adjustment
-28.6
Market Regression
-5.9
Final Difference
-64.2
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-28.6
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-20.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
22
Yards / Game
18
27
Passing Yards / Game
28
14
Rushing Yards / Game
4
32
EPA
EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
22
18
EPA / Rush
4
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
17
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
20
6
Turnover EPA / Game
21
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
12
4th Down Efficiency
30
17
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
14
Yards / Game
23
3
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
30
11
EPA
EPA / Play
24
21
EPA / Pass
26
11
EPA / Rush
19
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
6
17
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
23
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
14
4th Down Efficiency
20
27
RZ Efficiency
21
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
5-4-1
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U