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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ steelers week 17, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
7-8
14
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
25°F
12 mph
26
PITSteelers
7-7
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
25°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
0
7
7
14
Steelers
0
10
3
13
26

Spread

PIT logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
232
299
Total Plays
67
79
Yards / Play
3.5
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.05
Passing Yards
139
109
Comp/Att
16/38(42%)
24/46(52%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
2.4
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.38
Rushing Yards
93
190
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.29
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
29%
28%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
18
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.52
-0.43
Sacks
9
2
Sack Yards
-46
-14
Sack EPA
-13.20
-3.65
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
77
51
Penalty EPA
-8.02
-6.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model59.1%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-18
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+19.9
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.6
Home QB Adjustment
-20.1
Away QB Adjustment
-28.6
Market Regression
-5.6
Final Difference
-63.6
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-28.6
Value
Ptile
10/03
-8.1
8
10/10
6.1
88
10/17
-3.8
25
10/31
-3.2
29
11/07
-0.5
49
11/14
-7.8
9
11/21
-8.4
6
11/28
-3.4
28
12/12
1.5
64
12/25
-10.4
3
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-20.1
Value
Ptile
10/10
2.1
69
10/17
1.3
62
10/31
-0.4
49
11/08
-1.7
40
11/21
2.9
75
11/28
-6.3
13
12/05
3.0
76
12/09
0.9
60
12/19
-4.4
22
12/26
-4.8
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Browns logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
22
Yards / Game
18
27
Passing Yards / Game
28
14
Rushing Yards / Game
4
32

EPA

EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
22
18
EPA / Rush
4
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
17
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
20
6
Turnover EPA / Game
21
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
12
4th Down Efficiency
30
17
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Steelers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
21
14
Yards / Game
23
3
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
30
11

EPA

EPA / Play
24
21
EPA / Pass
26
11
EPA / Rush
19
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
6
17
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
23
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
14
4th Down Efficiency
20
27
RZ Efficiency
21
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
-23
L
L
O
10/21
3
W
W
U
10/31
-5
L
L
U
11/07
25
W
W
O
11/14
-38
L
L
O
11/21
3
W
L
U
11/28
-6
L
L
U
12/12
2
W
L
O
12/20
-2
L
W
U
12/25
-2
L
W
U
PIT logo

Steelers

5-4-1
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
3
W
L
P
10/31
5
W
W
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
11/14
0
T
L
U
11/21
-4
L
W
O
11/28
-31
L
L
O
12/05
1
W
W
U
12/09
-8
L
L
O
12/19
6
W
W
U
12/26
-26
L
L
O