CLEBrowns
9-5
36
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
022
HOUTexans
8-6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
15
6
8
36
Texans
0
7
0
15
22
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
422
252
Total Plays
78
68
Yards / Play
5.4
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.16
Passing Yards
366
178
Comp/Att
28/45(62%)
26/49(53%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.30
Rushing Yards
56
72
Rush Attempts
32
16
Yards / Rush
1.8
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
20
Passing 1st downs
19
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
57%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.29
-5.58
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-33
Sack EPA
-4.21
-5.18
Penalties
9
10
Penalty Yards
55
76
Penalty EPA
-6.45
-10.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-42
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+53.1
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-17.5
Home QB Adjustment
-14.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
-53.6
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-14.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
11
Yards / Game
16
15
Passing Yards / Game
5
6
Rushing Yards / Game
13
8
EPA
EPA / Play
28
13
EPA / Pass
28
16
EPA / Rush
23
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
15
Interceptions / Game
32
15
Fumbles / Game
26
25
Turnover EPA / Game
1
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
6
4th Down Efficiency
16
18
RZ Efficiency
15
15
Texans Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
15
1
Passing Yards / Game
21
2
Rushing Yards / Game
28
10
EPA
EPA / Play
14
1
EPA / Pass
11
1
EPA / Rush
27
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
11
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
16
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U