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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ texans week 16, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
9-5
36
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
22
HOUTexans
8-6
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
15
6
8
36
Texans
0
7
0
15
22

Spread

CLE logo
-3

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
422
252
Total Plays
78
68
Yards / Play
5.4
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.16
Passing Yards
366
178
Comp/Att
28/45(62%)
26/49(53%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.30
Rushing Yards
56
72
Rush Attempts
32
16
Yards / Rush
1.8
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
26
20
Passing 1st downs
19
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
57%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
2
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.29
-5.58
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-33
Sack EPA
-4.21
-5.18
Penalties
9
10
Penalty Yards
55
76
Penalty EPA
-6.45
-10.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+53.0
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-17.7
Home QB Adjustment
-14.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.3
Market Regression
-54.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Value
Ptile
11/09
4.7
77
11/22
-3.3
23
11/21
1.3
63
09/11
-1.5
43
09/18
6.5
90
09/25
-8.5
5
01/08
-4.1
23
12/03
-2.0
35
12/10
1.2
57
12/17
-2.2
34
C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-14.4
Value
Ptile
09/15
2.3
68
09/23
-1.5
43
09/29
-9.6
5
10/13
-1.7
41
10/20
-5.7
16
10/24
-4.6
22
12/29
-6.5
14
10/21
-0.3
51
01/09
-1.2
44
12/17
-3.4
27

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Texans Defense
Browns logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
12
11
Yards / Game
16
15
Passing Yards / Game
5
6
Rushing Yards / Game
13
8

EPA

EPA / Play
28
13
EPA / Pass
28
16
EPA / Rush
23
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
15
Interceptions / Game
32
15
Fumbles / Game
26
25
Turnover EPA / Game
1
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
6
4th Down Efficiency
16
18
RZ Efficiency
15
15
Texans Offense vs Browns Defense
Texans logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
15
1
Passing Yards / Game
21
2
Rushing Yards / Game
28
10

EPA

EPA / Play
14
1
EPA / Pass
11
1
EPA / Rush
27
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
11
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
16
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
2
W
W
P
10/22
1
W
L
O
10/29
-4
L
P
O
11/05
27
W
W
U
11/12
2
W
W
O
11/19
3
W
W
U
11/26
-17
L
L
O
12/03
-17
L
L
O
12/10
4
W
W
O
12/17
3
W
P
U
HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
-2
L
W
U
10/15
7
W
W
U
10/29
-2
L
L
U
11/05
2
W
L
O
11/12
3
W
W
O
11/19
5
W
L
U
11/26
-3
L
L
U
12/03
5
W
W
U
12/10
-24
L
L
O
12/17
3
W
W
U