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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ titans week 5, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
1-2
29
TBD
Nissan Stadium
67°F
13 mph
28
TENTitans
1-3
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
67°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
10
3
14
27
Titans
7
21
0
0
28

Spread

CLE logo
TEN logo
1
P

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
460
410
Total Plays
74
65
Yards / Play
6.2
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.16
Passing Yards
284
261
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.27
Rushing Yards
176
149
Rush Attempts
36
30
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
27
22
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-0.92
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-12
Sack EPA
-2.25
-2.91
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
74
68
Penalty EPA
-7.29
-5.54

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model50.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+22
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
+2.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.8
Home QB Adjustment
-8.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.4
Market Regression
-23.9
Final Difference
-1.6
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Value
Ptile
12/30
-1.9
37
09/22
-3.7
26
09/29
3.1
71
10/03
-3.9
25
09/07
-1.8
37
09/14
-0.3
48
09/21
5.1
82
J. Locker headshot

J. Locker

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Value
Ptile
09/08
-3.5
28
09/15
-2.5
36
09/22
8.0
92
09/29
4.6
82
10/20
3.6
75
11/03
-6.2
13
11/10
-7.8
9
09/07
1.0
57
09/14
-5.8
16
09/21
-4.4
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Titans Defense
Browns logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
27
29
Yards / Game
23
27
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
16
31

EPA

EPA / Play
27
30
EPA / Pass
22
26
EPA / Rush
23
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
6
Interceptions / Game
19
22
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
25
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
19
4th Down Efficiency
27
14
RZ Efficiency
23
24
Titans Offense vs Browns Defense
Titans logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
30
9
Yards / Game
29
22
Passing Yards / Game
16
17
Rushing Yards / Game
26
32

EPA

EPA / Play
30
8
EPA / Pass
30
3
EPA / Rush
17
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
20
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
13
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
11
4th Down Efficiency
28
29
RZ Efficiency
26
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-21
L
L
O
11/24
-16
L
L
U
12/01
-4
L
L
O
12/08
-1
L
W
O
12/15
-7
L
L
O
12/22
-11
L
L
U
12/29
-13
L
L
U
09/07
-3
L
W
O
09/14
2
W
W
O
09/21
-2
L
P
O
TEN logo

Titans

4-6
SU
2-6-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
4
W
W
P
12/01
-8
L
L
U
12/08
-23
L
L
O
12/15
-3
L
P
O
12/22
4
W
P
U
12/29
6
W
L
U
09/07
16
W
W
U
09/14
-16
L
L
U
09/21
-26
L
L
U
09/28
-24
L
L
O