CLEBrowns
1-2
29
TBD
Nissan Stadium
67°F
13 mph
28
TENTitans
1-3
TBD
Nissan Stadium
67°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
10
3
14
27
Titans
7
21
0
0
28
Spread
1
P
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
460
410
Total Plays
74
65
Yards / Play
6.2
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.16
Passing Yards
284
261
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.27
Rushing Yards
176
149
Rush Attempts
36
30
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
22
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-0.92
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-12
Sack EPA
-2.25
-2.91
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
74
68
Penalty EPA
-7.29
-5.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model50.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
+2.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.8
Home QB Adjustment
-8.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.4
Market Regression
-24.4
Final Difference
-2.1
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
29
Yards / Game
23
27
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
16
31
EPA
EPA / Play
27
30
EPA / Pass
22
26
EPA / Rush
23
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
6
Interceptions / Game
19
22
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
25
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
19
4th Down Efficiency
27
14
RZ Efficiency
23
24
Titans Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
9
Yards / Game
29
22
Passing Yards / Game
16
17
Rushing Yards / Game
26
32
EPA
EPA / Play
30
8
EPA / Pass
30
3
EPA / Rush
17
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
20
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
13
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
11
4th Down Efficiency
28
29
RZ Efficiency
26
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Titans
4-6
SU
2-6-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U