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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ bears week 4, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
2-1
10
TBD
Soldier Field
66°F
5 mph
48
CHIBears
2-1
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
66°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
3
0
7
10
Bears
14
24
7
3
48

Spread

CHI logo
-3

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
311
483
Total Plays
60
58
Yards / Play
5.2
8.3
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.59
Passing Yards
251
344
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
13.2
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.90
Rushing Yards
60
139
Rush Attempts
18
31
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
16
28
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
8
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.31
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-20
-10
Sack EPA
-5.11
-2.28
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
99
38
Penalty EPA
-9.61
-0.72

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+27
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,477
Home Field
+47.1
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-27.5
Home QB Adjustment
-2.4
Away QB Adjustment
+25.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+25.2
Value
Ptile
11/06
-5.2
15
11/27
3.6
76
12/05
-7.9
6
01/01
2.3
67
11/12
-4.0
25
11/19
2.3
69
11/26
1.4
62
09/09
16.3
100
09/16
10.1
96
09/24
1.8
60
M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Value
Ptile
11/19
1.9
66
11/26
-8.2
7
12/03
-2.5
36
12/10
5.9
87
12/16
-3.2
29
12/24
-3.0
32
12/31
-1.8
39
09/09
-2.0
33
09/17
0.2
48
09/23
-3.6
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Bears Defense
Buccaneers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
11
1
Yards / Game
2
3
Passing Yards / Game
1
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
1

EPA

EPA / Play
12
1
EPA / Pass
9
3
EPA / Rush
26
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
24
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
25
17
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
17
RZ Efficiency
15
4
Bears Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Bears logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
21
27
Passing Yards / Game
13
32
Rushing Yards / Game
14
24

EPA

EPA / Play
17
31
EPA / Pass
12
31
EPA / Rush
17
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
14
Interceptions / Game
20
26
Fumbles / Game
20
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
22
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
12
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
10
W
W
O
11/26
-14
L
L
O
12/03
-6
L
L
O
12/10
-3
L
L
U
12/18
-3
L
W
U
12/24
-3
L
W
U
12/31
7
W
W
O
09/09
8
W
W
O
09/16
6
W
W
O
09/24
-3
L
L
O
CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
-3
L
P
O
11/26
-28
L
L
U
12/03
-1
L
L
U
12/10
26
W
W
U
12/16
-10
L
L
U
12/24
17
W
W
U
12/31
-13
L
W
U
09/09
-1
L
W
O
09/17
7
W
W
U
09/23
2
W
L
U