TBBuccaneers
2-1
10
TBD
Soldier Field
66°F
5 mph
48
CHIBears
2-1
TBD
Soldier Field
66°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
3
0
7
10
Bears
14
24
7
3
48
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
311
483
Total Plays
60
58
Yards / Play
5.2
8.3
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.59
Passing Yards
251
344
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
13.2
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.90
Rushing Yards
60
139
Rush Attempts
18
31
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
28
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
8
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.31
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-20
-10
Sack EPA
-5.11
-2.28
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
99
38
Penalty EPA
-9.61
-0.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+23
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+46.5
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-27.5
Home QB Adjustment
-2.4
Away QB Adjustment
+25.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+25.2
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
1
Yards / Game
2
3
Passing Yards / Game
1
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
1
EPA
EPA / Play
12
1
EPA / Pass
9
3
EPA / Rush
26
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
24
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
25
17
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
17
RZ Efficiency
15
4
Bears Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
21
27
Passing Yards / Game
13
32
Rushing Yards / Game
14
24
EPA
EPA / Play
17
31
EPA / Pass
12
31
EPA / Rush
17
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
14
Interceptions / Game
20
26
Fumbles / Game
20
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
22
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
12
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U