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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ bears week 5, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
3-1
19
TBD
Soldier Field
57°F
7 mph
20
CHIBears
3-1
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
57°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
10
3
3
3
19
Bears
0
14
0
6
20

Spread

CHI logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
339
243
Total Plays
64
59
Yards / Play
5.3
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.06
Passing Yards
233
208
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
30/42(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.11
Rushing Yards
106
35
Rush Attempts
20
14
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
29%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.73
-6.33
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-20
-35
Sack EPA
-4.74
-5.54
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
109
66
Penalty EPA
-9.89
-6.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-95
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,592
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-9.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.4
Away QB Adjustment
+15.7
Market Regression
+34.7
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Value
Ptile
12/01
-1.4
44
12/08
-5.2
19
12/15
-5.3
18
12/21
7.1
90
12/29
-3.3
29
01/04
-4.3
23
09/13
-0.7
41
09/20
-0.4
43
09/27
3.9
72
10/04
8.9
94
N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+6.4
Value
Ptile
12/16
1.6
58
12/23
11.7
98
12/30
1.9
61
01/06
1.1
54
01/13
-1.9
33
09/08
-3.2
30
11/17
2.4
69
11/24
0.1
52
12/01
-10.4
4
10/04
-0.8
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Bears Defense
Buccaneers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
2
13
Yards / Game
9
11
Passing Yards / Game
12
22
Rushing Yards / Game
25
14

EPA

EPA / Play
5
10
EPA / Pass
5
20
EPA / Rush
21
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
17
Interceptions / Game
15
28
Fumbles / Game
4
21
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
13
18
RZ Efficiency
11
6
Bears Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Bears logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
7
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
14
21
Rushing Yards / Game
26
1

EPA

EPA / Play
22
6
EPA / Pass
24
6
EPA / Rush
20
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
30
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
9
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
13
RZ Efficiency
21
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
13
W
W
O
12/01
17
W
W
U
12/08
3
W
P
O
12/15
21
W
W
O
12/21
-3
L
P
U
12/29
-6
L
L
O
09/13
-11
L
L
O
09/20
14
W
W
O
09/27
18
W
W
U
10/04
7
W
L
O
CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
5
W
L
U
11/28
4
W
L
O
12/05
7
W
W
O
12/15
-8
L
L
U
12/22
-23
L
L
U
12/29
2
W
L
O
09/13
4
W
W
O
09/20
4
W
L
U
09/27
4
W
W
O
10/04
-8
L
L
U