TBBuccaneers
3-1
19
TBD
Soldier Field
57°F
7 mph
20
CHIBears
3-1
TBD
Soldier Field
57°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
10
3
3
3
19
Bears
0
14
0
6
20
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
339
243
Total Plays
64
59
Yards / Play
5.3
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.06
Passing Yards
233
208
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
30/42(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.11
Rushing Yards
106
35
Rush Attempts
20
14
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
29%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.73
-6.33
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-20
-35
Sack EPA
-4.74
-5.54
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
109
66
Penalty EPA
-9.89
-6.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-99
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-9.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.4
Away QB Adjustment
+15.7
Market Regression
+35.9
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
13
Yards / Game
9
11
Passing Yards / Game
12
22
Rushing Yards / Game
25
14
EPA
EPA / Play
5
10
EPA / Pass
5
20
EPA / Rush
21
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
17
Interceptions / Game
15
28
Fumbles / Game
4
21
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
13
18
RZ Efficiency
11
6
Bears Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
7
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
14
21
Rushing Yards / Game
26
1
EPA
EPA / Play
22
6
EPA / Pass
24
6
EPA / Rush
20
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
30
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
9
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
13
RZ Efficiency
21
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bears
7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U