nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ bengals week 8, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

TB logo
TBBuccaneers
3-3
34
TBD
Paycor Stadium
55°F
7 mph
37
CINBengals
4-3
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
55°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
9
7
18
34
Bengals
7
20
1
3
31

Spread

TB logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
55

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
578
402
Total Plays
84
63
Yards / Play
6.9
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.10
Passing Yards
452
264
Comp/Att
29/51(57%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.29
Rushing Yards
126
138
Rush Attempts
27
27
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
29
21
Passing 1st downs
20
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
56%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-23.16
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-20
-16
Sack EPA
-4.26
-3.79
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
75
46
Penalty EPA
-7.99
-5.36

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model63.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+129
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+79.1
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-44.4
Final Difference
97.0
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Value
Ptile
10/22
9.0
96
10/29
-7.3
11
11/05
-6.4
14
12/03
-2.9
33
12/10
-1.4
43
12/18
7.3
91
12/24
1.4
62
12/31
0.7
57
10/14
7.2
91
10/21
1.0
53
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Value
Ptile
12/17
-10.4
2
12/24
-3.3
29
12/31
2.2
68
09/09
1.7
59
09/13
7.5
91
09/23
-3.2
26
09/30
4.0
74
10/07
-0.9
41
10/14
-0.2
45
10/21
-6.6
11

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Buccaneers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
11
30
Yards / Game
2
32
Passing Yards / Game
1
10
Rushing Yards / Game
28
29

EPA

EPA / Play
12
29
EPA / Pass
9
29
EPA / Rush
26
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
19
Interceptions / Game
32
20
Fumbles / Game
25
19
Turnover EPA / Game
2
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
26
RZ Efficiency
15
25
Bengals Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Bengals logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
31
Yards / Game
26
27
Passing Yards / Game
22
32
Rushing Yards / Game
21
24

EPA

EPA / Play
18
31
EPA / Pass
18
31
EPA / Rush
19
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
14
Interceptions / Game
17
26
Fumbles / Game
1
26
Turnover EPA / Game
24
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
22
4th Down Efficiency
18
7
RZ Efficiency
3
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
-3
L
L
U
12/18
-3
L
W
U
12/24
-3
L
W
U
12/31
7
W
W
O
09/09
8
W
W
O
09/16
6
W
W
O
09/24
-3
L
L
O
09/30
-38
L
L
O
10/14
-5
L
L
O
10/21
3
W
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
-27
L
L
U
12/24
9
W
W
U
12/31
4
W
W
O
09/09
11
W
W
O
09/13
11
W
W
O
09/23
-10
L
L
O
09/30
1
W
W
O
10/07
10
W
W
U
10/14
-7
L
L
U
10/21
-35
L
L
U