TBBuccaneers
3-3
34
TBD
Paycor Stadium
55°F
7 mph
37
CINBengals
4-3
TBD
Paycor Stadium
55°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
9
7
18
34
Bengals
7
20
1
3
31
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
578
402
Total Plays
84
63
Yards / Play
6.9
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.10
Passing Yards
452
264
Comp/Att
29/51(57%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.29
Rushing Yards
126
138
Rush Attempts
27
27
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
21
Passing 1st downs
20
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
56%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-23.16
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-20
-16
Sack EPA
-4.26
-3.79
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
75
46
Penalty EPA
-7.99
-5.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model63.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+132
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+78.2
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-43.9
Final Difference
97.5
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
30
Yards / Game
2
32
Passing Yards / Game
1
10
Rushing Yards / Game
28
29
EPA
EPA / Play
12
29
EPA / Pass
9
29
EPA / Rush
26
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
19
Interceptions / Game
32
20
Fumbles / Game
25
19
Turnover EPA / Game
2
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
26
RZ Efficiency
15
25
Bengals Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
31
Yards / Game
26
27
Passing Yards / Game
22
32
Rushing Yards / Game
21
24
EPA
EPA / Play
18
31
EPA / Pass
18
31
EPA / Rush
19
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
14
Interceptions / Game
17
26
Fumbles / Game
1
26
Turnover EPA / Game
24
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
22
4th Down Efficiency
18
7
RZ Efficiency
3
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U