TBBuccaneers
2-2
33
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
038
ARICardinals
2-3
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
0
6
21
27
Cardinals
14
10
7
7
38
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
416
432
Total Plays
68
59
Yards / Play
6.1
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.09
Passing Yards
344
272
Comp/Att
27/44(61%)
18/22(82%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
12.4
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.09
Rushing Yards
72
160
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.89
-12.82
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-7
-11
Sack EPA
-2.79
-2.96
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
49
61
Penalty EPA
-10.92
-5.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model48.9%
Spread Pick
Cardinals+2.5
Expected Value
+2.8%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+54
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,477
Home Field
+77.8
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.5
Net QB Adjustment
-14.0
Home QB Adjustment
-7.5
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
-17.7
Final Difference
7.9
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
18
Yards / Game
7
4
Passing Yards / Game
1
24
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6
EPA
EPA / Play
13
6
EPA / Pass
11
9
EPA / Rush
25
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
3
Interceptions / Game
20
12
Fumbles / Game
32
23
Turnover EPA / Game
8
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
13
13
RZ Efficiency
23
23
Cardinals Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
22
Yards / Game
23
32
Passing Yards / Game
8
3
Rushing Yards / Game
30
23
EPA
EPA / Play
30
28
EPA / Pass
29
29
EPA / Rush
31
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
13
Interceptions / Game
28
15
Fumbles / Game
10
9
Turnover EPA / Game
5
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
32
4th Down Efficiency
20
1
RZ Efficiency
30
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U