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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ cardinals week 6, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
2-2
33
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
38
ARICardinals
2-3
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
0
6
21
27
Cardinals
14
10
7
7
38

Spread

ARI logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
416
432
Total Plays
68
59
Yards / Play
6.1
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.09
Passing Yards
344
272
Comp/Att
27/44(61%)
18/22(82%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
12.4
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.09
Rushing Yards
72
160
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.89
-12.82
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-7
-11
Sack EPA
-2.79
-2.96
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
49
61
Penalty EPA
-10.92
-5.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
+0.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model48.8%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.8%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+54
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+78.8
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
-14.0
Home QB Adjustment
-7.5
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
-17.7
Final Difference
8.2
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
Value
Ptile
11/27
3.7
76
12/04
0.0
48
12/11
-3.6
22
12/18
-9.4
3
12/24
-1.0
41
01/01
-3.9
20
09/17
-1.8
40
09/24
-0.1
50
10/01
6.3
89
10/05
0.9
58
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.5
Value
Ptile
12/04
4.2
80
12/11
-7.9
6
12/18
5.5
84
12/24
2.5
68
01/01
-0.2
46
09/10
-5.9
16
09/17
-3.5
27
09/25
-1.0
44
10/01
-2.7
34
10/08
1.3
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Buccaneers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
18
18
Yards / Game
7
4
Passing Yards / Game
1
24
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6

EPA

EPA / Play
13
6
EPA / Pass
11
9
EPA / Rush
25
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
3
Interceptions / Game
20
12
Fumbles / Game
32
23
Turnover EPA / Game
8
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
13
13
RZ Efficiency
23
23
Cardinals Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Cardinals logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
22
Yards / Game
23
32
Passing Yards / Game
8
3
Rushing Yards / Game
30
23

EPA

EPA / Play
30
28
EPA / Pass
29
29
EPA / Rush
31
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
13
Interceptions / Game
28
15
Fumbles / Game
10
9
Turnover EPA / Game
5
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
32
4th Down Efficiency
20
1
RZ Efficiency
30
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
9
W
W
U
12/04
7
W
W
P
12/11
5
W
W
U
12/18
-6
L
W
U
12/24
-7
L
L
O
01/01
1
W
L
U
09/17
22
W
W
U
09/24
-17
L
L
O
10/01
2
W
L
O
10/05
-5
L
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
8
W
W
O
12/11
-3
L
L
O
12/18
-7
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
W
O
01/01
38
W
W
O
09/10
-12
L
L
O
09/17
3
W
L
U
09/25
-11
L
L
U
10/01
3
W
L
U
10/08
-27
L
L
U