TBBuccaneers
7-6
40
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
017
LACChargers
8-5
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
6
17
10
40
Chargers
7
10
0
0
17
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
506
206
Total Plays
67
48
Yards / Play
7.6
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.32
Passing Yards
283
174
Comp/Att
22/27(81%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
10.5
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.66
-0.44
Rushing Yards
223
32
Rush Attempts
39
11
Yards / Rush
5.7
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
14
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
60%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
9
--
3rd Down Attempts
15
6
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.40
-7.03
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-5
-25
Sack EPA
-1.18
-3.85
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
83
60
Penalty EPA
-9.74
-5.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model61.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+124
Home nfelo
1,587
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+67.5
Base HFA
+39.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
+14.2
Net QB Adjustment
-25.8
Home QB Adjustment
-9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
77.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
2
Yards / Game
3
11
Passing Yards / Game
8
18
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14
EPA
EPA / Play
5
4
EPA / Pass
4
4
EPA / Rush
7
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
14
Interceptions / Game
24
7
Fumbles / Game
19
13
Turnover EPA / Game
14
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
25
RZ Efficiency
4
2
Chargers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
17
Yards / Game
20
19
Passing Yards / Game
16
25
Rushing Yards / Game
20
3
EPA
EPA / Play
13
18
EPA / Pass
14
22
EPA / Rush
19
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
18
Interceptions / Game
5
29
Fumbles / Game
3
13
Turnover EPA / Game
29
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
15
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
18
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U