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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ chargers week 15, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
7-6
40
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
17
LACChargers
8-5
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
6
17
10
40
Chargers
7
10
0
0
17

Spread

TB logo
+3

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
506
206
Total Plays
67
48
Yards / Play
7.6
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.32
Passing Yards
283
174
Comp/Att
22/27(81%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
10.5
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.66
-0.44
Rushing Yards
223
32
Rush Attempts
39
11
Yards / Rush
5.7
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
24
14
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
60%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
9
--
3rd Down Attempts
15
6
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.40
-7.03
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-5
-25
Sack EPA
-1.18
-3.85
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
83
60
Penalty EPA
-9.74
-5.44

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model60.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+122
Home nfelo
1,586
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+67.5
Base HFA
+39.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
+14.2
Net QB Adjustment
-25.8
Home QB Adjustment
-9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
77.0
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Value
Ptile
09/29
6.6
87
10/03
5.7
82
10/13
5.1
80
10/21
4.7
78
10/27
5.9
84
11/04
3.2
71
11/10
-2.9
29
11/24
8.4
94
12/01
-6.5
10
12/08
-1.8
36
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-9.8
Value
Ptile
09/29
-2.7
30
10/13
-1.5
38
10/21
0.8
54
10/27
4.7
79
11/03
-0.6
45
11/10
4.0
75
11/17
3.6
73
11/25
-0.9
43
12/01
-9.1
3
12/08
-0.8
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
2
Yards / Game
3
11
Passing Yards / Game
8
18
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14

EPA

EPA / Play
5
4
EPA / Pass
4
4
EPA / Rush
7
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
14
Interceptions / Game
24
7
Fumbles / Game
19
13
Turnover EPA / Game
14
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
25
RZ Efficiency
4
2
Chargers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Chargers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
17
Yards / Game
20
19
Passing Yards / Game
16
25
Rushing Yards / Game
20
3

EPA

EPA / Play
13
18
EPA / Pass
14
22
EPA / Rush
19
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
18
Interceptions / Game
5
29
Fumbles / Game
3
13
Turnover EPA / Game
29
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
15
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
18
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
17
W
W
O
10/03
-6
L
L
O
10/13
24
W
W
O
10/21
-10
L
L
O
10/27
-5
L
L
O
11/04
-6
L
W
O
11/10
-3
L
W
U
11/24
23
W
W
U
12/01
3
W
L
O
12/08
15
W
W
U
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
-7
L
W
U
10/13
7
W
W
O
10/21
-2
L
L
U
10/27
18
W
W
U
11/03
17
W
W
U
11/10
10
W
W
O
11/17
7
W
W
O
11/25
-7
L
L
O
12/01
4
W
W
U
12/08
-2
L
W
U