TBBuccaneers
7-3
38
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
031
INDColts
6-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
14
14
10
38
Colts
3
21
0
7
31
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
392
Total Plays
63
67
Yards / Play
5.7
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.03
Passing Yards
217
285
Comp/Att
25/34(74%)
27/44(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.11
Rushing Yards
142
107
Rush Attempts
27
20
Yards / Rush
5.3
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.34
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
24
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
13
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
25%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
11
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-1.64
-18.48
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-9
-21
Sack EPA
-3.12
-8.57
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
44
66
Penalty EPA
-5.15
-6.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-81
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,674
Home Field
+53.1
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.5
Home QB Adjustment
+2.3
Away QB Adjustment
+16.7
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
11
Yards / Game
3
17
Passing Yards / Game
9
21
Rushing Yards / Game
26
12
EPA
EPA / Play
4
12
EPA / Pass
6
21
EPA / Rush
11
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
22
Interceptions / Game
9
3
Fumbles / Game
19
1
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
18
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
1
26
Colts Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
7
Yards / Game
16
15
Passing Yards / Game
18
31
Rushing Yards / Game
2
3
EPA
EPA / Play
8
4
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
2
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
31
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
20
4
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
10
4th Down Efficiency
6
8
RZ Efficiency
19
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U