TBBuccaneers
6-2
19
TBD
FedExField
47°F
8 mph
29
WASCommanders
2-6
TBD
FedExField
47°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
6
7
6
19
Commanders
6
10
7
6
29
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
273
320
Total Plays
47
72
Yards / Play
5.8
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.09
Passing Yards
--
226
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
26/32(81%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.18
Rushing Yards
53
94
Rush Attempts
13
35
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
4
11
3rd Down Attempts
10
19
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.20
-3.49
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-30
Sack EPA
--
-7.57
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
43
33
Penalty EPA
-4.94
+1.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model80.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-248
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,678
Home Field
+20.6
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.6
Away Bye Adj
-31.4
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-91.3
Home QB Adjustment
-63.7
Away QB Adjustment
+27.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-241.9
Model Spread
+10.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+27.6
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-63.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
25
Yards / Game
3
22
Passing Yards / Game
9
22
Rushing Yards / Game
26
8
EPA
EPA / Play
4
27
EPA / Pass
6
25
EPA / Rush
11
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
10
Interceptions / Game
9
22
Fumbles / Game
19
11
Turnover EPA / Game
29
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
31
4th Down Efficiency
17
22
RZ Efficiency
1
18
Commanders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
7
Yards / Game
21
15
Passing Yards / Game
18
31
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3
EPA
EPA / Play
21
4
EPA / Pass
25
4
EPA / Rush
14
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
31
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
20
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
10
4th Down Efficiency
22
8
RZ Efficiency
26
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U