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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ commanders week 18, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
11-5
31
TBD
FedExField
40°F
10 mph
23
WASCommanders
7-9
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
40°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
9
9
0
13
31
Commanders
0
7
9
7
23

Spread

TB logo
WAS logo
8
P

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
507
375
Total Plays
73
70
Yards / Play
6.9
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.01
Passing Yards
365
289
Comp/Att
22/40(55%)
26/45(58%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.49
-0.01
Rushing Yards
142
86
Rush Attempts
30
23
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
26
23
Passing 1st downs
18
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
20%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.18
-4.32
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-17
Sack EPA
-4.25
-2.21
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
24
25
Penalty EPA
-2.53
-3.99

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market76.2%
Model82.3%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers-8.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+22.7%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-322
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,657
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-98.3
Home QB Adjustment
-73.9
Away QB Adjustment
+24.3
Market Regression
-29.1
Final Difference
-267.2
Model Spread
+11.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.3
Value
Ptile
10/25
12.9
98
11/02
2.7
65
11/08
-10.6
2
11/15
8.9
94
11/23
-2.9
24
11/29
3.2
68
12/13
1.6
55
12/20
2.6
64
12/26
7.4
91
01/03
4.6
77
T. Heinicke headshot

T. Heinicke

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-73.9
Value
Ptile
12/23
-2.9
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Buccaneers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
2
5
Yards / Game
9
5
Passing Yards / Game
12
6
Rushing Yards / Game
25
15

EPA

EPA / Play
5
7
EPA / Pass
5
4
EPA / Rush
21
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
5
Interceptions / Game
15
7
Fumbles / Game
4
4
Turnover EPA / Game
22
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
7
4th Down Efficiency
13
2
RZ Efficiency
11
2
Commanders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Commanders logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
7
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
11
21
Rushing Yards / Game
26
1

EPA

EPA / Play
27
6
EPA / Pass
29
6
EPA / Rush
11
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
30
Interceptions / Game
27
3
Fumbles / Game
17
10
Turnover EPA / Game
10
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
17
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
15
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
25
W
W
O
11/02
2
W
L
O
11/08
-35
L
L
U
11/15
23
W
W
O
11/23
-3
L
L
O
11/29
-3
L
W
U
12/13
12
W
W
U
12/20
4
W
L
O
12/26
40
W
W
U
01/03
17
W
W
O
WAS logo

Commanders

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
22
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
L
P
11/15
-3
L
L
O
11/22
11
W
W
U
11/26
25
W
W
O
12/07
6
W
W
U
12/13
8
W
W
U
12/20
-5
L
W
U
12/27
-7
L
L
U
01/03
6
W
L
U