TBBuccaneers
11-5
31
TBD
FedExField
40°F
10 mph
23
WASCommanders
7-9
TBD
FedExField
40°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
9
9
0
13
31
Commanders
0
7
9
7
23
Spread
8
P
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
507
375
Total Plays
73
70
Yards / Play
6.9
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.01
Passing Yards
365
289
Comp/Att
22/40(55%)
26/45(58%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.49
-0.01
Rushing Yards
142
86
Rush Attempts
30
23
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
23
Passing 1st downs
18
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
20%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.18
-4.32
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-17
Sack EPA
-4.25
-2.21
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
24
25
Penalty EPA
-2.53
-3.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market76.2%
Model82.3%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers-8.0
Expected Value
+22.7%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-323
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,660
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-98.3
Home QB Adjustment
-73.9
Away QB Adjustment
+24.3
Market Regression
-29.2
Final Difference
-267.5
Model Spread
+11.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.3
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-73.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
5
Yards / Game
9
5
Passing Yards / Game
12
6
Rushing Yards / Game
25
15
EPA
EPA / Play
5
7
EPA / Pass
5
4
EPA / Rush
21
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
5
Interceptions / Game
15
7
Fumbles / Game
4
4
Turnover EPA / Game
22
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
7
4th Down Efficiency
13
2
RZ Efficiency
11
2
Commanders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
7
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
11
21
Rushing Yards / Game
26
1
EPA
EPA / Play
27
6
EPA / Pass
29
6
EPA / Rush
11
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
30
Interceptions / Game
27
3
Fumbles / Game
17
10
Turnover EPA / Game
10
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
17
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
15
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-7-1
O/U