TBBuccaneers
4-1
28
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
74°F
8 mph
22
PHIEagles
2-3
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
74°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
14
7
7
0
28
Eagles
7
0
7
8
22
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
399
215
Total Plays
73
48
Yards / Play
5.5
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.06
Passing Yards
--
115
Comp/Att
34/42(81%)
12/27(44%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.24
Rushing Yards
102
100
Rush Attempts
31
19
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
16
Passing 1st downs
17
5
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
54%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-0.99
-2.37
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-2
Sack EPA
--
-1.35
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
120
41
Penalty EPA
-8.56
-3.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-204
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,679
Home Field
+41.5
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.8
Home QB Adjustment
+16.2
Away QB Adjustment
+27.9
Market Regression
-15.6
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+27.9
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
19
Yards / Game
3
10
Passing Yards / Game
9
3
Rushing Yards / Game
26
9
EPA
EPA / Play
4
18
EPA / Pass
6
23
EPA / Rush
11
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
26
Interceptions / Game
9
21
Fumbles / Game
19
31
Turnover EPA / Game
29
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
23
4th Down Efficiency
17
9
RZ Efficiency
1
29
Eagles Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
7
Yards / Game
13
15
Passing Yards / Game
17
31
Rushing Yards / Game
1
3
EPA
EPA / Play
10
4
EPA / Pass
14
4
EPA / Rush
3
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
31
Interceptions / Game
7
8
Fumbles / Game
4
4
Turnover EPA / Game
27
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
10
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
8
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Eagles
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U