TBBuccaneers
-
31
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
024
ATLFalcons
-
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
14
14
0
31
Falcons
10
3
8
3
24
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
371
376
Total Plays
60
65
Yards / Play
6.2
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.03
Passing Yards
--
324
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.41
+0.22
Rushing Yards
90
52
Rush Attempts
28
22
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.50
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-3.02
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
48
74
Penalty EPA
-4.37
-9.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+52.3
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.5
Home QB Adjustment
+0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+3.6
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
27
Yards / Game
18
27
Passing Yards / Game
13
31
Rushing Yards / Game
25
17
EPA
EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
9
22
EPA / Rush
28
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
11
Interceptions / Game
27
17
Fumbles / Game
25
15
Turnover EPA / Game
12
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
22
29
RZ Efficiency
21
32
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
15
Yards / Game
2
22
Passing Yards / Game
2
20
Rushing Yards / Game
5
22
EPA
EPA / Play
1
12
EPA / Pass
1
10
EPA / Rush
4
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
16
Interceptions / Game
3
4
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
1
4th Down Efficiency
9
31
RZ Efficiency
9
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
0-10
O/U