TBBuccaneers
2-2
29
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
034
ATLFalcons
1-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
6
7
3
13
29
Falcons
7
17
0
10
34
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
57.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
510
417
Total Plays
64
64
Yards / Play
8.0
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.26
Passing Yards
389
347
Comp/Att
30/42(71%)
31/41(76%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.40
Rushing Yards
121
70
Rush Attempts
20
22
Yards / Rush
6.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
26
Passing 1st downs
23
19
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
63%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.90
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-6
-8
Sack EPA
-3.11
-1.72
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
20
30
Penalty EPA
-3.83
-4.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+6.9
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.8
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+23.2
Home QB Adjustment
+13.8
Away QB Adjustment
-9.4
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.4
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
25
Yards / Game
2
28
Passing Yards / Game
1
26
Rushing Yards / Game
28
25
EPA
EPA / Play
12
30
EPA / Pass
9
23
EPA / Rush
26
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
13
Interceptions / Game
32
11
Fumbles / Game
25
31
Turnover EPA / Game
2
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
31
4th Down Efficiency
5
28
RZ Efficiency
15
27
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
31
Yards / Game
6
27
Passing Yards / Game
3
32
Rushing Yards / Game
27
24
EPA
EPA / Play
5
31
EPA / Pass
6
31
EPA / Rush
24
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
3
26
Fumbles / Game
29
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
22
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
11
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U